Fragile Calm Returns to Markets as Focus Shifts to Fed Remarks

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-22-25

Fragile Calm Returns to Markets as Focus Shifts to Fed Remarks

Global markets saw a modest pause in volatility today as risk sentiment stabilized following yesterday’s US selloff. US futures are pointing to a mild recovery, helping to calm nerves in early trading. Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly but remains elevated around 4.4%, reflecting persistent investor caution. Gold also retreated marginally after coming within striking distance of the 3500 mark earlier in the session, as the appetite for safe havens eased slightly.

Despite today’s calm, market sentiment remains on a knife edge. The political backdrop in the US continues to cast a long shadow over financial markets, with fears about Fed's independence following recent attacks by US President Donald Trump. Any further comments from US officials questioning Fed’s autonomy could quickly reignite volatility. For now, the market is watching closely for signals from a lineup of Fed speakers scheduled for the US session, who are expected to reinforce the central bank’s institutional independence and data-driven approach.

On the trade front, optimism remains scarce. The ongoing 90-day truce on US reciprocal tariffs has so far yielded little tangible progress, with talks reportedly stalling even among close allies like Japan. Uncertainty over what happens when the truce expires continues to weigh on global confidence, limiting the potential for any sustained rebound in risk assets.

In the currency markets, Loonie is underperforming for the week so far, followed by Dollar and Aussie. Yen leads on the stronger side, followed by Kiwi and Euro. Sterling and the Swiss Franc are positioning themselves in the middle of the pack....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1414; (P) 1.1494; (R1) 1.1592; More...

Further rally is expected in EUR/USD as long as 1.1357 support holds. Current rise from 1.0176 should target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694 next. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.1357 should indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for deeper pullback.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 970M 80M 510M 392M
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Mar 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index M/M Mar -1.00% 0.00% 0.30%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr P -15 -15