Euro Declines After ECB Opens Door for Rate Cuts, Dollar Eases Following PPI Data
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-11-24 |
Euro Declines After ECB Opens Door for Rate Cuts, Dollar Eases Following PPI Data |
Euro weakens broadly following ECB's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with explicit suggestions of a potential rate cut ahead. However, selloff has been relatively mild, primarily because ECB's statement didn't serve as a definitive pre-announcement of rate cuts, unlike its 2022 guidance on rate hike. Moreover, the conditional guidance regarding future rate adjustments had been largely anticipated, given previous communications from ECB officials. Still, risk is now mildly on the downside for the common currency, especially in crosses. Concurrently, Dollar is also paring some of its post CPI strong gain, after PPI data came in lower than market expected. While the PPI report might not significantly hasten a Fed rate cut in June, it at least doesn't push it further in time. Meanwhile, the greenback's pullback remains slight. Renewed selloff in US stocks could trigger further gains for Dollar... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0779; (R1) 1.0830; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536. On the upside, above 1.0766 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0884 resistance holds, in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Mar | -4% | -6% | -10% | | 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Mar | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.40% | | 01:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr | 4.60% | 4.30% | | 01:30 | CNY | CPI Y/Y Mar | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.70% | | 01:30 | CNY | PPI Y/Y Mar | -2.80% | -2.80% | -2.70% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Industrial Output M/M Feb | 0.10% | 0.50% | -1.20% | -1.40% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Rate On Deposit Facility | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI M/M Mar | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.60% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Mar | 2.10% | 2.30% | 1.60% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Mar | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Mar | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 5) | 211K | 215K | 221K | 222K | | 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 14B | -37B |
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