Muted Market Response to NFP, Euro Holds Strong While Loonie Struggles

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-7-25

Muted Market Response to NFP, Euro Holds Strong While Loonie Struggles

The much-anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report came and went without much impact to the markets. With job growth largely in line with forecasts, the data signaled a stable labor market and the balanced outcome offers little guidance to Fed policymakers, who will continue weighing inflation trends, fiscal uncertainties, and global trade risks before committing to any policy shift. Investors, for their part, appear content to sit on the sidelines until more definitive signals emerge, resulting in subdued market reactions.

In contrast, Canadian dollar faltered after domestic employment data revealed a near standstill in job growth. Despite a short-lived uplift from fresh tariff exemptions, Loonie found itself on the back foot again, as stagnant employment reignited concerns over economic momentum. Whether the currency will face further downward pressure in the final trading hours of the week may depend heavily on broader risk sentiment, which has already pushed Australian and New Zealand Dollars lower.

Meanwhile, European majors are holding their ground, with Euro on track to end the week as the best performer. Sterling and Swiss Franc also remain well-supported, benefiting from the rally tied to Europe’s sweeping fiscal and defence initiatives....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0749; (P) 1.0801; (R1) 1.0837; More...

EUR/USD's rally from 1.0176 resumed after brief retreat, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.0531 from 1.0358 at 1.0932 next. On the downside, below 1.0764 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0613) to bring another rally.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
03:02 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Feb 170.5B 147.5B 104.8B
07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Jan -7.00% -2.40% 6.90% 5.90%
07:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Jan -6.5B -4.1B -3.9B -3.5B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Feb 735B 736B
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Feb 1.1K 17.8K 76K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Feb 6.60% 6.70% 6.60%
13:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Q4 79.80% 79.00% 79.30% 79.40%
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 151K 156K 143K 125K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Feb 4.10% 4.00% 4.00%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40%