Dollar Slips, Euro Bounces, Aussie Awaits CPI
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-25-25 |
Dollar Slips, Euro Bounces, Aussie Awaits CPI |
Dollar is once again under pressure as markets head into the US session, with its recent rebound losing steam in the absence of any clear-cut catalyst. While new headlines on tariffs continue to emerge almost daily, these “leaks” could only be seen as reflective of ongoing deliberations within the White House, rather than firm policy. For now, the tariff outlook remains mired in speculation, and traders are growing weary of chasing news that is yet to be confirmed — or could just as easily be reversed. The latest development suggests US President Donald Trump is eyeing a two-step tariff strategy, set to commence on “Liberation Day,” April 2. The proposal may include a strengthened legal foundation for a broader “reciprocal” tariff regime, which could also serve to raise revenue for future tax cuts. Additionally, a revival of vehicle import tariffs is reportedly being considered, bringing back a national security investigation from Trump’s first term. In Europe, German DAX is staging a notable rebound, while Euro tries to firm up against Dollar. . German Ifo data points to improving sentiment and expectations, buoyed by optimism around fiscal expansion plans. Still, questions remain about the sustainability of recovery, especially with persistent weakness in services and complications from coalition talks. Overall, the mood in Europe remains cautiously optimistic but restrained. While the idea of a cyclical upswing in Germany is gaining traction, it’s offset by global uncertainty, particularly around US trade policy. The lack of clarity around tariffs is also limiting the extent of positive momentum in risk assets..... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0769; (P) 1.0814; (R1) 1.0845; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. Corrective pattern from 1.0953 could extend with another fall. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0953 will resume the rally from 1.0176 towards 1.1274 key resistance. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Business Climate Mar | 86.7 | 87 | 85.2 | 85.3 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Current Assessment Mar | 85.7 | 85.5 | 85 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Expectations Mar | 87.7 | 87.9 | 85.4 | 85.6 | | 13:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Jan | 4.70% | 4.60% | 4.50% | | 13:00 | USD | Housing Price Index M/M Jan | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 14:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Mar | 94.2 | 98.3 | | 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales Feb | 682K | 657K |
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