US-Canada Talks Offer Hope, But Risk Aversion Keeps Yen in Demand
| Action Insight Md-Day Report 2-3-25 |
US-Canada Talks Offer Hope, But Risk Aversion Keeps Yen in Demand |
After a burst of volatility earlier in the session, currency markets are taking a breather as traders reassess the evolving US tariff situation. Comments from White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett helped cool tensions when he clarified that, "This is not a trade war, this is a drug war," directing the focus toward fentanyl imports rather than a sweeping escalation of protectionist policies. His remarks have provided a temporary sense of relief, as markets take a step back to evaluate whether tariff measures could be adjusted or reversed if progress is made on fentanyl control. President Donald Trump’s updates on discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have also offered a glimmer of hope that a negotiated outcome could avert more severe tariff measures. Market sentiment hangs on the possibility that resolving fentanyl-related disputes could defuse tensions, but the risks for a breakdown in talks still looms. A failure to find common ground would likely re-energize the recent selloff and send safe-haven flows back into assets like the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0328; (P) 1.0381; (R1) 1.0412; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Decisive break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0176 from 1.0531 at 0.9890. On the upside, above 1.0349 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0531 resistance holds, in case of strong recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | BOJ Summary of Opinions | | 00:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Dec | -0.10% | -0.70% | 0.80% | 0.70% | | 00:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Dec | 0.70% | 1.00% | -3.60% | -3.40% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Jan F | 48.7 | 48.8 | 48.8 | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jan | 50.1 | 50.5 | 50.5 | | 08:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI Jan | 47.5 | 48.4 | | 08:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Jan F | 45 | 45.3 | 45.3 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan F | 45 | 44.1 | 44.1 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F | 46.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | | 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Jan F | 48.3 | 48.2 | 48.2 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan P | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan P | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.70% | | 14:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Jan | 51.6 | 52.2 | | 14:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Jan F | 51.2 | 50.1 | 50.1 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan | 50.9 | 49.3 | 49.3 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jan | 54.9 | 52.6 | 52.5 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jan | 50.3 | 45.3 | | 15:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Dec | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.00% |
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