Dollar Softens Mildly as Inflation Matches Forecasts, Yen Rally Loses Steam
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-29-24 |
Dollar Softens Mildly as Inflation Matches Forecasts, Yen Rally Loses Steam |
US stock futures bounce while treasury yields weaken following release of January's PCE inflation data, which showed slowdown in both headline and core inflation rates as anticipated. This development provided some relief to investors, who were concerned that disinflation progress might have come to a halt. Fed should remain more likely start interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, rather than waiting until later. The development also led to mild weakening of Dollar. As for the day Yen is maintaining its position as the strongest currency, fueled by hawkish comments from a BoJ official. Yet, there is no clear follow through momentum for now. Traders are probably awaiting more definitive guidance from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on the anticipated rate hike before making significant bets. Elsewhere, Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar are trailing Yen as the second and third strongest currencies, respectively. On the other end of the spectrum, Sterling and Swiss Franc are underperforming, with New Zealand Dollar not far behind. Euro and the Dollar are mixed in the middle... |
| Canada's GDP flat in Dec, up 0.2% qoq in Q4 US initial jobless claims rises to 215k, above expectation 210k US PCE prices slows to 2.4% yoy in Jan, core PCE... Swiss KOF falls to 101.6 in Feb, rather positive economic signals... Swiss GDP grows 0.3% qoq in Q4, abv exp 0.1% qoq BoJ's Takata ignites Yen rally, downside prospects in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY BoJ's Takata urges policy shift, time to exit ultra-accommodative stance Japan faces steepest industrial decline in nearly four years, -7.5% mom... Australia's retail sales rises 1.1% mom in Jan, stagnates in trend... NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 34.7, patchy economy RBNZ's Orr confident on bringing down inflation, highlights global risks |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0807; (P) 1.0829; (R1) 1.0860; More... EUR/USD recovers mildly in early US session but stays in range below 1.0887. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed. Stronger rally would then be seen back to 1.1138. However, break of 1.0761 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0694 support. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Jan P | -7.50% | -7.30% | 1.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Jan | 2.30% | 2.00% | 2.30% | | 00:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Feb | 34.7 | 36.6 | | 00:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Jan | 1.10% | 1.70% | -2.70% | -2.10% | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Jan | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure Q4 | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.30% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Jan | -7.50% | -7.50% | -4.00% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Jan | -0.40% | 0.50% | -1.60% | | 07:45 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q4 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Feb | 101.6 | 102 | 101.5 | 102.5 | | 08:00 | CHF | GDP Q/Q Q4 | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Feb | 11K | 10K | -2K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Feb | 5.90% | 5.80% | 5.80% | | 09:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Jan | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Feb P | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.20% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Feb P | 2.50% | 2.60% | 2.90% | | 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Dec | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Jan | 1.00% | 0.50% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Spending Jan | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Jan | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Jan | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.60% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Jan | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Jan | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.90% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 23) | 215K | 210K | 201K | 202K | | 14:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Feb | 47.9 | 46 | | 15:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Jan | 1.00% | 8.30% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -86B | -60B |
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