Greenback Drops Ahead of Consumer Data, Risk Sentiment in Focus
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-25-25 |
Greenback Drops Ahead of Consumer Data, Risk Sentiment in Focus |
Dollar weakened notably against European majors and Yen as markets transitioned into US session, despite subdued overall trading activity. The decline was largely driven by extended fall in US 10-year Treasury yield, which hit its lowest level since mid-December. Beyond geopolitical and trade war concerns, market focus has turned toward whether slowing US consumption and softer economic data could force Fed to resume rate cuts sooner than expected, even as inflation remains elevated. Fed funds futures now price in a near 65% chance of a 25bps rate cut in June, a notable increase from 45% just a week ago. The next catalyst for Dollar’s direction will be consumer confidence report, set for release shortly. However, Dollar’s next moves may not be straightforward, as risk aversion—if it intensifies—could provide some support due to safe-haven demand. US stocks, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ, could be vulnerable on the upcoming Nvidia earnings report later in the week. For now, commodity currencies are under the most pressure, with Kiwi leading the declines. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest performer, followed closely by Sterling and Euro. Dollar and Yen are positioned in the middle. |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2594; (P) 1.2643; (R1) 1.2673; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2522 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.2689 will resume the rally from 1.2099 to 1.2810 resistance next. However, firm break below 1.2522 will argue that the rebound might have completed, and bring deeper fall to 1.2331 support. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Jan | 3.10% | 2.90% | 2.90% | 3.00% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q4 F | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Dec | 4.30% | 4.30% | | 14:00 | USD | Housing Price Index M/M Dec | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 15:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Feb | 103.3 | 104.1 |
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