Dollar Shrugs Slight ADP Miss, Sterling Rises on BoE's Gradualist Easing
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-4-24 |
Dollar Shrugs Slight ADP Miss, Sterling Rises on BoE's Gradualist Easing |
Dollar is mixed as markets enter into US session, with traders digesting the slightly weaker-than-expected ADP private employment report. The re-accelerating pay growth as shown in the report might prompt some concerns among hawkish members of Fed. But the focus remains on Friday’s non-farm payroll data, the definitive input for assessing labor market health. Fed fund futures currently suggest a 76% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the December meeting, but this is not set in stone. Sterling is outperforming peers today, buoyed partly by upward revision in UK PMI and supportive remarks from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Bailey reiterated a "gradual approach" to monetary easing. The indirect hint of four rate cuts next year aligned well with market expectations. His comments reflect the dual challenges facing the BoE: managing the domestic impact of the Autumn Budget and navigating international risks, particularly trade disruptions from US tariff policies under the new administration. Meanwhile, Aussie extends its post-GDP decline, making it the weakest performer of the day. Yen also lags, as US and European benchmark yields rebound, while Kiwi follows as third worst. Loonie leads gains, with Dollar and Sterling following, while Euro and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the pack.... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.75; (P) 149.49; (R1) 150.34; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 148.64 temporary low will strength the case that rise from 139.57 has already completed at 156.754. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 156.74 at 146.12 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 151.94 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 156.74 high. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Nov F | 50.5 | 50.2 | 50.2 | | 00:30 | AUD | GDP Q/Q Q3 | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.20% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Nov | 51.5 | 52.5 | 52 | | 08:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Nov F | 46.9 | 45.7 | 45.7 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Nov F | 49.3 | 49.4 | 49.4 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Nov F | 49.5 | 49.2 | 49.2 | | 09:30 | GBP | Services PMI Nov F | 50.8 | 50 | 50 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI M/M Oct | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.60% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI Y/Y Oct | -3.20% | -3.30% | -3.40% | | 13:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Nov | 146K | 165K | 233K | 184K | | 13:30 | CAD | Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3 | -0.40% | 0.20% | -0.20% | -0.10% | | 14:45 | USD | Services PMI Nov F | 57 | 57 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Nov | 55.5 | 56 | | 15:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Oct | 0.40% | -0.50% | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.6M | -1.8M | | 19:00 | USD | Fed's Beige Book |
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