Dollar Selloff Extends after PCE Inflation, Breaking to the Downside
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-1-22 |
Dollar Selloff Extends after PCE Inflation, Breaking to the Downside |
Dollar's selloff picks up momentum in early US session after PCE inflation slowed more than expected in October, while core PCE also declined. The data give a nod to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comment that smaller rate hikes could start in December. Yen is the better performer as supported by extended pull back in US and European benchmark yields. But Euro and Sterling are clearly advancing with more conviction. Commodity currencies are also firm but lag behind. Technically, EUR/USD is breaking 1.0496 while GBP/USD has taken out 1.2152 resistance, confirming resumption of recent rally. Similarly, Gold has also taken out 1786.83 resistance to resume the rise from 1616.51. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1616.51 to 1786.83 from 1728.43 at 1833.73. It's a bit early to judge, but there is prospect of extending the rise to 1900 handle, which is close to another cluster fibonacci level. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.16%. DAX is up 1.01%. CAC is up 0.46%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.1074 at 1.827. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.92%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.75%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.45%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0006 to 0.251. |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1944; (P) 1.2015; (R1) 1.2130; More... GBP/USD's rally resumed by breaking 1.2152 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.0351 should target 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288 first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.2759 medium term fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.1898 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping, otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | AUD | AiG Performance of Mfg Index Nov | 44.7 | 49.6 | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure Q3 | -0.60% | 1.20% | -0.30% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Nov F | 49 | 49.4 | 49.4 | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Nov | 49.4 | 48.6 | 49.2 | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Nov | 28.6 | 30.2 | 29.9 | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct | -2.80% | -0.60% | 0.90% | | 07:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Oct | -2.50% | 3.30% | 3.20% | 2.60% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI M/M Nov | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI Y/Y Nov | 3.00% | 2.60% | 3.00% | | 08:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI Nov | 53.9 | 53 | 54.9 | | 08:45 | EUR | Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov | 48.4 | 47.3 | 46.5 | | 08:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Nov F | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.1 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov F | 46.2 | 46.7 | 46.7 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F | 47.1 | 47.3 | 47.3 | | 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Nov F | 46.5 | 46.2 | 46.2 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct | 6.50% | 6.60% | 6.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov | 416.50% | 48.30% | | 13:30 | CAD | Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3 | 0.60% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Oct | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Spending Oct | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.60% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 6.00% | 6.20% | 6.20% | 6.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.10% | 5.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 25) | 225K | 245K | 240K | 241K | | 14:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Nov | 50 | 48.8 | | 14:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Nov F | 47.6 | 47.6 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov | 50.5 | 50.2 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Nov | 47.3 | 46.6 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Nov | 50 | | 15:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Oct | -0.10% | 0.20% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -82B | -80B |
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