Canadian Dollar Slumps as Inflation Miss Heightens BoC 50bps Cut Expectations
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-15-24 |
Canadian Dollar Slumps as Inflation Miss Heightens BoC 50bps Cut Expectations |
Canadian Dollar weakens broadly decline in early US session following weaker-than-expected inflation data. The drop in headline CPI, driven primarily by falling gasoline prices, was steeper than anticipated. However, core inflation measures, especially the closely-watched CPI common, remained near 2% level. This further solidifies expectations that BoC would accelerate its policy easing, with a 50bps rate cut likely at the October 23 meeting. In contrast, British Pound found some support from a mixed set of labor market data. UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4%, while wage growth slowed to its lowest point in over two years. This data leaves the decision for a BoE rate cut in November finely balanced. However, the market's focus is now shifting to tomorrow's UK CPI release, which is expected to carry more weight in shaping BoE's course of action.... |
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3768; (P) 1.3786; (R1) 1.3816; More... Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3418 is in progress. Next target is a test on 1.3946/76 key resistance zone. On the downside, 1.3769 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will be expected as long as 1.3646 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Aug F | -3.30% | -3.30% | -3.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Sep | 27.9K | 20.2K | 23.7K | | 06:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Aug | 4.00% | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Aug | 3.80% | 3.80% | 4.00% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Aug | 4.90% | 5.00% | 5.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct | 13.1 | 10.2 | 3.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Oct | -86.9 | -85 | -84.5 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct | 20.1 | 16.9 | 9.3 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Aug | 1.80% | 1.80% | -0.30% | -0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Oct | -11.9 | 3.4 | 11.5 | | 12:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Aug | -0.60% | -1.10% | 0.40% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Sep | -0.40% | -0.20% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Sep | 1.60% | 1.80% | 2.00% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Median Y/Y Sep | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Sep | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Sep | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.00% | 1.90% |
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