Dollar Struggles for Direction Amid Mixed Signals: Strong Inflation vs. Weak Jobs Data
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-10-24 |
Dollar Struggles for Direction Amid Mixed Signals: Strong Inflation vs. Weak Jobs Data |
Dollar is struggling to find a clear direction after a set of contrasting economic data sent mixed signals to the markets. On one side, inflationary pressures remain elevated, especially with core inflation ticking up, signals that Fed won't be able to accelerate its policy easing. On the other hand, the unexpectedly sharp rise in initial jobless claims has sparked concerns about amore severe slowdown in the employment market. Market expectations for Fed remain largely unchanged, with Fed funds futures still pricing in over 80% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in both November and December. Beyond these two meetings, however, the future path of monetary easing looks even more uncertain now. For the day, Japanese Yen leads in strength, supported by comments from a top BoJ official signaling that more rate hikes could still be on the table. Swiss Franc is the second strongest, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Conversely, Canadian Dollar is the weakest, trailed by Euro and British Pound, while Dollar and Australian Dollar are mixed in middle positions. ... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.43; (P) 148.89; (R1) 149.78; More... USD/JPY dips in early US session but stays above 147.33 minor support. Intraday bias stays on the upside, as rise from 139.57 short term bottom is still in progress. Current rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. On the downside, below 147.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Sep | 11% | 7% | 1% | 0% | | 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Y/Y Sep | 2.70% | 2.90% | 3% | | 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Sep | 2.80% | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct | 4.00% | 4.40% | | 11:30 | EUR | ECB Meeting Accounts | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) | 258K | 231K | 225K | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Sep | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Sep | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Sep | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Sep | 3.30% | 3.20% | 3.20% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 73B | 55B |
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