Commodity Currencies Slide as Markets Brace for Trump's Tariff Moves
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-17-25 |
Commodity Currencies Slide as Markets Brace for Trump's Tariff Moves |
Sharp selloff in commodity currencies against Dollar is dominating market action as the US session unfolds. While broader trading remains subdued, the sudden weakness in these currencies appears tied to trader caution ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday. Concerns over tariff policies could be the main driver of the moves, in the absence of other clear fundamental catalysts. Canada, Mexico, and China are widely speculated to be high on Trump’s tariff agenda. The tariffs may serve as leverage to address issues like fentanyl exports or re-exports impacting the United States. However, the specifics of Trump’s strategy remain a “wild card.” Possible scenarios include blanket tariffs on major trading partners, sector-specific measures, immediate enactment via executive orders, or staggered monthly increases. Or, it could be a mix of these approaches. For the week, Sterling remains the weakest performer, followed by Loonie and Dollar. On the other hand, Japanese Yen leads gains with the Aussie and Swiss Franc rounding out the top three. Kiwi and Euro are trading in mixed positions. However, the current selling pressure on commodity currencies could alter these rankings as the week comes to the close. |
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4336; (P) 1.4370; (R1) 1.4427; More... Immediate focus is now on 1.4466 resistance with current strong rally ins USD/CAD. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend to 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.4279 support will bring deeper correction. But downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.4187) to bring rebound. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Dec | 45.9 | 45.5 | | 02:00 | CNY | GDP Y/Y Q4 | 5.40% | 5.00% | 4.60% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec | 6.20% | 5.40% | 5.40% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Dec | 3.70% | 3.50% | 3.00% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Y/Y Dec | 3.20% | 3.30% | 3.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Dec | -0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Current Account (EUR) Nov | 27.0B | 28.0B | 25.8B | 30.2B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec F | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Dec F | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Building Permits Dec | 1.48M | 1.46M | 1.49M | | 13:30 | USD | Housing Starts Dec | 1.50M | 1.32M | 1.29M | | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Dec | 0.90% | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.20% | | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Dec | 77.60% | 77.10% | 76.80% | 77.00% |
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