Cautious Trade Dominates as Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Leads, Gold Jumps
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-16-25 |
Cautious Trade Dominates as Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Leads, Gold Jumps |
Activity in the forex markets has turned relatively subdued today, with no clear trend emerging as traders shift into a cautious stance. With no top-tier economic data scheduled for the rest of the week, attention is turning to the impending inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump next Monday. The spotlight is squarely on his anticipated tariff policies, which could have profound implications for global trade and economic stability. Yen holds its position as the strongest currency of the day, buoyed by increasing speculation of a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan at its meeting next week. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s consistent messaging has reinforced market expectations, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening. Swiss Franc ranks second best, benefiting from decline in European benchmark yields. Dollar is the third-best performer, continuing to consolidate against its peers. The greenback's movements were unaffected by slightly worse-than-expected US jobless claims and retail sales data. On the downside, New Zealand Dollar has overtaken Sterling as the weakest currency of the day. Pound remains under pressure following disappointing GDP data but has not faced aggressive selling. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar is the third weakest, while Euro and Canadian Dollar trade in mixed fashion...... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0248; (P) 1.0302; (R1) 1.0344; More... EUR/USD is still engaged in consolidations above 1.0176 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.0435 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Dec | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.80% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Jan | 4.00% | 4.20% | | 00:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Dec | 28% | 28% | 25% | | 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change Dec | 56.3K | 15.0K | 35.6K | 28.2K | | 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Dec | 4.00% | 4.00% | 3.90% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Dec F | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Dec F | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Nov | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Nov | -0.40% | 0.10% | -0.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Nov | -1.80% | -1.00% | -0.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Nov | -0.30% | 0.20% | -0.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Nov | -1.20% | -0.30% | 0.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Nov | -19.3B | -18.0B | -19.0B | -19.3B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Nov | 12.9B | 7.2B | 6.1B | 7.0B | | 12:30 | EUR | ECB Meeting Accounts | | 13:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Y/Y Dec | 231K | 250K | 262K | 267K | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10) | 217K | 210K | 201K | 203K | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Dec | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.80% | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Dec | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Dec | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.10% | | 13:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Jan | 44.3 | -8.5 | -16.4 | | 15:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Jan | 47 | 46 | | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Nov | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -260B | -40B |
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