Sterling Advances on Strong GDP Data; Swiss Franc Awaits Crucial Breakout
| Action Insight Daily Report 8-11-23 |
Sterling Advances on Strong GDP Data; Swiss Franc Awaits Crucial Breakout |
British Pound is showing notable strength in early European session today, buoyed by more robust than anticipated monthly and quarterly GDP figures. While the quarterly GDP has not yet bounced back to its pre-pandemic stature, the positive numbers come as a boon to BoE. This development supports the expectation that the BoE will maintain its prolonged tightening, as inflation remains elevated. On the other side of the Atlantic, Dollar has displayed remarkable resilience post its CPI-induced dip. The greenback is staying as the strongest performer for the week, even though it's still bounded in range against all but Yen. Currently, Sterling occupies the third spot in performance rankings, with a potential to surpass Euro and secure second place. Yen, however, remains at the bottom of the pile, with minimal chances of a reversal before the week concludes. Commodity-based currencies also seem to be on the weaker end. Technically, Swiss Franc is worth some attention for the near term. USD/CHF's price actions from 0.8804 are rather corrective looking, and argues that rebound from 0.8551 is not over. Break of 0.8804 would likely push the pair through 0.8818 support turned resistance, which would then signal a stronger medium term rebound is underway, even as a corrective move. At the same time, the selloff in Franc would be solidified if EUR/CHF could break through corresponding resistance levels at 0.9647 and 0.9670 too. In Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.84%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.78%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.45%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.92%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0241 to 0.589. Overnight, DOW rose 0.15%. S&P 500 rose 0.03%. NASDAQ rose 0.12%. 10-year yield rose 0.068 to 4.080. |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2721; (R1) 1.2773; More... GBP/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range above 1.2618. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, below 1.2618, and sustained trading below 1.2678 resistance turned support will argue that it's already in a larger correction. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.2306 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.2817 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Jul | 46.3 | 47.5 | 47.4 | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q2 P | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Jun | 0.50% | 0.20% | -0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Jun | 1.80% | -0.10% | -0.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Jun | 0.70% | -2.10% | -2.30% | -2.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Jun | 2.40% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun | 3.1% | -1.00% | -1.20% | -0.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jun | -15.5B | -16.2B | -18.7B | -18.4B | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Trade Balance (EUR) Jun | 4.23B | 4.71B | | 11:00 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) Jul | 0.00% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI M/M Jul | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Jul | 0.70% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Jul | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Jul | 2.30% | 2.40% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Aug P | 70.9 | 71.6 |
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