Dollar Steady Following FOMC, BoE Rate Decision Looms
| Action Insight Daily Report 8-1-24 |
Dollar Steady Following FOMC, BoE Rate Decision Looms |
Dollar remained relatively steady following the balanced post-FOMC press conference, with notable exceptions against the stronger yen and Swiss franc. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September but refrained from making any firm commitments or providing extended guidance. While markets are aggressively betting on three Fed cuts this year, some economists view this as overly optimistic. The greenback's next moves will likely be influenced by today's ISM manufacturing data and tomorrow's non-farm payroll data. For the week, Yen remains the strongest currency with no clear signs of a sustainable pullback. Swiss Franc is currently the second strongest, with its strength partially attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East, which have also driven up gold and oil prices. Canadian Dollar is the third strongest, benefiting from a lack of significant selling pressure. Conversely, Euro and Sterling are at the bottom of the weekly performance chart alongside the Australian dollar. The selloff against Swiss franc is adding pressure on these two European majors. Sterling is now focused on BoE rate decision, where uncertainty about a potential rate cut looms large. The decision could trigger significant volatility in Pound and shift its position notably... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3777; (P) 1.3818; (R1) 1.3849; More... Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3796 support holds. Rise from 1.3176 should be resuming and next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3845 from 1.3588 at 1.4025. On the downside, below 1.3796 minor support will delay the bullish case and bring deeper pullback first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 49.1 | 49.2 | 49.2 | | 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Jun | 5.59B | 4.95B | 5.77B | 5.05B | | 01:30 | AUD | Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 | 1.00% | -0.70% | -1.80% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jul | 49.8 | 51.6 | 51.8 | | 07:45 | EUR | Italy Manufacturing PMI Jul | 46.2 | 45.7 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 44.1 | 44.1 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 42.6 | 42.6 | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Jun | 6.80% | 6.80% | | 08:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 45.6 | 45.6 | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 51.8 | 51.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun | 6.40% | 6.40% | | 11:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 5.00% | 5.25% | | 11:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0--6--3 | 0--2--7 | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul | 19.80% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26) | 239K | 235K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q2 P | 1.50% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q2 P | 1.60% | 4.00% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Jul | 49.3 | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 49.5 | 49.5 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Jul | 48.8 | 48.5 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jul | 52.5 | 52.1 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jul | 49.3 | | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Jun | 0.20% | -0.10% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 22B |
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