Dollar Holds Weekly as Markets Ignore Fed Wallerâs Dovish Push, Ethereum Breaks Higher
| Action Insight Daily 7-18-25 |
Dollar Holds Weekly as Markets Ignore Fed Waller’s Dovish Push, Ethereum Breaks Higher |
Dollar eased slightly in today's Asian session but remains firmly in the lead as the top-performing currency for the week. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reignited the debate over rate cuts, calling for easing as soon as this month. But his comments — timed just ahead of the Fed’s blackout window — failed to shift expectations. Market pricing still implies overwhelming odds of over 97% for no change in July. The lack of reaction is telling. Waller, though vocal, isn’t seen as representing the majority view, particularly in light of steady inflation and resilient growth. As a voting committee, the FOMC doesn’t take marching orders from a single official — not even the Chair, whose own independence has been under political pressure recently. Markets appear unconvinced that Waller’s remarks signal any imminent pivot. After all, the consensus leans toward staying on hold and watching how tariffs evolve after August 1 tariff truce deadline. That patience looks justified. US jobless claims fell more than expected and retail sales rebounded, suggesting consumers are recovering from tariff-related uncertainty without a major hit to spending. That resilience is also reflected in risk sentiment, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ both notching fresh record highs overnight. In FX, Dollar is still the strongest performer this week, trailed by the Loonie and Sterling. At the other end, Aussie has been the weakest following disappointing jobs data, while Kiwi and Yen also struggled. Euro and Swiss Franc are sitting near the middle of the weekly performance table. |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3698; (P) 1.3736; (R1) 1.3792; More... Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 1.3538 is extending with the third leg. Further rise would be seen to 1.3797 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, break of 1.3650 minor support will bring retest of 1.3538/55 support zone instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.30% | 3.50% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Jun | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.70% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core-Core Y/Y Jun | 3.40% | 3.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI M/M Jun | 0.10% | -0.20% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI Y/Y Jun | -1.30% | -1.20% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May | 34.8B | 19.8B | | 12:30 | USD | Housing Starts Jun | 1.29M | 1.26M | | 12:30 | USD | Building Permits Jun | 1.39M | 1.39M | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Jul P | 61.5 | 60.7 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations Jul P | 5.00% |
|
|
|
