Sterling Inches Up on UK CPI; US Tariff Deals and Crypto Politics Share Spotlight
| Action Insight Daily 7-16-25 |
Sterling Inches Up on UK CPI; US Tariff Deals and Crypto Politics Share Spotlight |
Sterling edged modestly higher today after UK inflation surprised to the upside, though gains were restrained. CPI and core CPI both accelerated in June, with goods inflation jumping sharply. The move raises questions about tariff passthrough effects and complicates the BoE's path ahead. While a BoE rate cut is still likely in August, the case is now less clear-cut. The Monetary Policy Committee is clearly divided, and hawks like Chief Economist Huw Pill, who dissented in the cut in May, could push back again against easing. Still, even if the easing cycle proceeds, there is little room for BoE to deviate from one cut per quarter to keep policy tight enough to anchor inflation expectations. For the week so far, Dollar leads FX rankings, followed by Loonie and Swiss Franc. Yen is the weakest performer, with Kiwi and Aussie also under pressure. Sterling and Euro sit in the middle. Overall, the rankings reflect a cautious and not particularly risk-friendly backdrop...... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3353; (P) 1.3410; (R1) 1.3442; More... GBP/USD recovers mildly ahead of 1.3369 support and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that strong support is expected from 1.3369 to complete the correction from 1.3787. On the upside, break of 1.3561 support turned resistance will bring retest of 1.3787 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. However, sustained break of 1.3369 will bring deeper correction back to 1.2706/3206 support zone. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 06:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Jun | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.60% | 3.40% | 3.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.70% | 3.50% | 3.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Jun | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Jun | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May | 12.0B | 14.0B | | 12:30 | USD | PPI M/M Jun | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Jun | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Jun | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Jun | 2.70% | 3% | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Jun | 0.00% | -0.20% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Jun | 77.40% | 77.40% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.8M | 7.1M | | 18:00 | USD | Fed's Beige Book |
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