Euro and Dollar Await Inflation Data as Markets Tread Water
| Action Insight Daily Report 6-30-23 |
Euro and Dollar Await Inflation Data as Markets Tread Water |
In the run-up to the close of the first half, forex markets appear to be treading water in today's Asian session. Market responses to China's lackluster PMI data have been tepid, while Yen remains largely unfazed by Japan's industrial production figures and Tokyo's CPI. Asian indexes are mixed with mild selloff in Nikkei. Dollar and Euro are neck-and-neck in the race for this week's top spot, with the final outcome possibly hinging on upcoming Eurozone CPI flash and US PCE inflation data. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, are languishing at the bottom of the chart, with Kiwi underperforming against its Australian and Canadian counterparts. Sterling, Swiss Franc, and Yen are stuck in a mixed performance amidst the fray. Technically, US 10-year yield's breach of 3.854 short term top overnight is worth a mention. Rise from 3.253 might be finally resuming. A strong close above the resistance today will solidify near term bullishness, and the case that whole correction from 4.333 has completed with three waves down to 3.253. This development could pave the way for further rally in the coming week, especially with a slew of high-impact US data on the horizon, and potentially providing a boost for USD/JPY. The lingering question for USD/JPY is when Japan might decide to step in with intervention again. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.54%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.02%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.78%. Singapore Strait times is up 0.03%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0131 at 0.397, getting close to 0.4 handle again. Overnight, DOW rose 0.80%. S&P 500 rose 0.45%. NASDAQ closed flat. 10-year yield rose 0.144 to 3.854. |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0888; (R1) 1.0917; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point as sideway trading continues. Further rally is mildly in favor with 1.0843 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.1011 will resume the rise from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534. However, break of 1.0843 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0634 support instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.10% | 3.80% | 3.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Jun | 3.20% | 3.30% | 3.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Food Energy Y/Y Jun | 3.80% | 4.40% | 3.90% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate May | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M May P | -1.60% | -1.00% | 0.70% | | 01:30 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI Jun | 49.0 | 49.5 | 48.8 | | 01:30 | CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun | 53.2 | 53.7 | 54.5 | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M May | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.60% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y May | -2.20% | -11.90% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M May | -2.00% | -1.70% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M May | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q1 F | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Current Account (GBP) Q1 | -7.7B | -2.5B | | 06:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y May | -2.50% | -3.70% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M May | 0.70% | -1.00% | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Jun | 89.2 | 90.2 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change May | 15K | 9K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate May | 5.60% | 5.60% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment May | 7.90% | 7.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate May | 6.50% | 6.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Y/Y Jun P | 5.60% | 6.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Core Y/Y Jun P | 5.40% | 5.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M May | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending May | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M May | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y May | 4.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M May | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y May | 4.70% | 4.70% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Jun | 44.5 | 40.4 | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Jun F | 63.9 | 63.9 |
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