Fed Doves, Ceasefire Talk Sink Dollar as Risk Appetite Rebuilds
| Action Insight Daily 6-23-25 |
Fed Doves, Ceasefire Talk Sink Dollar as Risk Appetite Rebuilds |
Dollar fell sharply overnight and extended its slide through Tuesday’s Asian session, as traders responded to dovish Fed commentary and easing geopolitical risks. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman signaled she would support a rate cut as soon as July if inflation pressures remain contained and labor market data weakens further. Her comments followed similar remarks from Governor Christopher Waller last week, suggesting the dovish wing of the FOMC may now be gaining traction. Market pricing for a July cut jumped notably, rising from just 15% a day ago to around 25%. The timing couldn’t be more important, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to deliver his semiannual testimony to Congress starting today. If Powell signals any openness to a near-term rate cut, it would mark a meaningful departure from the Fed’s recent cautious stance, and potentially trigger another leg lower for the greenback this week. A parallel driver of Dollar's weakness is the reversal in geopolitical sentiment. Oil prices' plunged after restrained retaliation by Iran. The sell off then intensified after US President Trump declared a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, triggering a further unwind in long crude positions. Although Iran launched final salvos of missiles after the announcement, Iranian state media framed the response as complete, reinforcing the view that tensions may be easing. That was enough to support a return to risk-on positioning in Asian markets and further erode Dollar’s safe haven appeal..... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3420; (P) 1.3475; (R1) 1.3580; More... GBP/USD's strong rebound suggest that pullback from 1.3631 has already completed at 1.3369. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.3631 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally to 1.4004 projection level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3369 will extend the correction with another falling leg instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Business Climate Jun | 88.2 | 87.5 | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Current Assessment Jun | 86.5 | 86.1 | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Expectations Jun | 89.5 | 88.9 | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M May | 0.50% | -0.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y May | 1.70% | 1.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Median Y/Y May | 3.00% | 3.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y May | 3.00% | 3.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y May | 2.40% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Current Account (USD) Q1 | -444B | -304B | | 13:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Apr | 4.20% | 4.10% | | 13:00 | USD | Housing Price Index M/M Apr | 0.10% | -0.10% | | 14:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Jun | 99.1 | 98 |
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