Inflation Data from Eurozone and US Takes Center Stage
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-31-24 |
Inflation Data from Eurozone and US Takes Center Stage |
Dollar continues its struggle to find direction, and stay in familiar range against most major currencies except against Swiss Franc. Markets shift their focus to the upcoming release of April US PCE data for guidance. Currently Fed fund futures are indicating a 50/50 chance of a rate cut by September. Recent comments from Fed officials hinted at the unlikelihood of further rate hikes. However, Fed's outlook and market sentiment could shift dramatically if today's data suggests re-acceleration of inflation. But absent significant surprises, attention is likely to turn to next week's employment figures. Euro is currently trading as as this week's weakest performer amidst anticipations for Eurozone CPI flash report. Forecasts suggest slight increase in headline CPI to 2.5% a steady core CPI at 2.7%. With ECB nearly set to introduce the first rate cut of this cycle next week, a subsequent rate cut in July seems improbable, as the central bank aims to manage market expectations carefully. Traders are poised to look beyond today's figures, focusing on next week's rate decision and forthcoming economic projections.... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6599; (P) 0.6624; (R1) 0.6656; More... AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6714 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y May | 2.20% | 1.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y May | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.60% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y May | 1.70% | 1.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Apr | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Apr P | -0.10% | 1.50% | 4.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Apr | 2.40% | 1.90% | 1.20% | 1.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Apr | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI May | 49.5 | 50.5 | 50.4 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI May | 51.1 | 51.5 | 51.2 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Apr | 13.9% | -0.20% | -12.80% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Apr | 0.50% | 0.40% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.10% | 1.80% | | 06:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Apr | 0.20% | -0.10% | | 06:45 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q1 | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Apr | 62K | 61K | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Apr | 0.40% | 0.70% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y May P | 2.50% | 2.40% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May P | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Mar | 0.00% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Apr | 0.30% | 0.80% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI May | 40 | 37.9 |
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