Markets Stabilize Ahead of Tariff D-Day, Focus Turns to Eurozone CPI and ISM Manufacturing
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-1-25 |
Markets Stabilize Ahead of Tariff D-Day, Focus Turns to Eurozone CPI and ISM Manufacturing |
The global equity selloff appears to have passed its peak—at least for now. After days of heavy risk-off moves driven by fears surrounding the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs announcement on Wednesday, traders have taken a cautious step back into a wait-and-see mode. US indexes clawed back most of their earlier losses overnight, closing mixed. Asian markets followed with mild gains in early Tuesday trading. Currency markets, meanwhile, are staying largely range-bound in Asian session. Despite the calm surface, risk aversion remains evident in the performance breakdown. Kiwi, Aussie, and Loonie are still the worst performers for the week so far. On the flip side, Yen and Dollar are leading the pack, followed by Euro. Sterling and Swiss Franc are holding middle ground. A major focus for today will be Eurozone’s flash CPI data. Recent media reports have revealed that some ECB officials are warming up to the idea of pausing rate cuts at the upcoming meeting on April 17. Odds now stand at around 65% for another 25bps reduction. While the doves remain committed to further easing, many appear willing to skip a meeting if hawks insist on more time to assess evolving risks. Any upside surprise in today's inflation print would strengthen the hawkish camp and make a pause more likely. US ISM Manufacturing Index will also draw much attention. After briefly returning to expansion territory for just two months, the index is expected to slip back into contraction. Beyond headline activity, the price component will be scrutinized, especially in light of the impending tariffs. Prices index has surged from around 50 to over 60 this year—further acceleration could signal inflationary pressures re-emerging on the supply side..... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4327; (P) 1.4361; (R1) 1.4424; More... Intraday bias in in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.4400 will argue that it's still in the second leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside fro 1.4541 resistance first, and then 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4234 at 1.4625. On the downside, though, break of 1.42324 support will suggest that the third leg has already started for 1.4150 and below. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Feb | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 | 12 | 12 | 14 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q1 | 12 | 9 | 13 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 | 35 | 33 | 33 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 | 28 | 29 | 28 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 | 3.10% | 11.30% | | 00:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Feb | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Mar F | 48.4 | 48.3 | 48.3 | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mar | 51.2 | 50.5 | 50.8 | | 03:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 04:30 | AUD | RBA Press Conference | | 06:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Feb | 1.50% | 1.30% | | 07:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI Mar | 50.5 | 49.6 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Mar F | 48.9 | 48.9 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar F | 48.7 | 48.3 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F | 48.7 | 48.7 | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Mar | 44.6 | 44.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb | 6.20% | 6.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Y/Y Mar P | 2.20% | 2.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Core Y/Y Mar P | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Mar | 47.8 | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Mar F | 49.8 | 49.8 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar | 49.9 | 50.3 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Mar | 65 | 62.4 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Mar | 47.6 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index Mar | 48.6 | | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Feb | 0.20% | -0.20% |
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