Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout?
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-28-23 |
Forex Markets Grapple with Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Sterling Ready for Breakout? |
Forex markets are currently navigating a landscape of uncertainty, as mixed currency performance contributes to a lack of clear direction. Dollar has experienced a decline in Asian session, but still hovers within familiar boundaries against other major currencies. Meanwhile, Euro has managed to strengthen against the greenback but appears less robust in other pairs. Yen, on the other hand, has emerged as a strong contender for the day, recouping some of its yesterday's pullback. In addition, Sterling has found firmer footing after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee can concentrate on inflation while the Financial Policy Committee maintains financial stability. Interestingly, Australian Dollar has managed to hold its ground despite disappointing retail sales data. Looking ahead, the market may experience subdued trading due to a relatively light economic calendar. However, the upcoming release of US consumer confidence data could introduce an element of volatility, as traders and investors alike look for potential opportunities in the midst of uncertainty. Technically, GBP/USD could now be eyeing 1.2342 temporary top with this week's rebound. Break there will resume the near term rally to 1.2445/6 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.2759 fibonacci level. Let's see if the Pound has enough buying to back the breakout. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.15%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.37%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.18%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.73%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0220 at 0.317. Overnight DOW rose 0.60%. S&P 500 rose 0.16%. NASDAQ dropped -0.47%. 10-year yield rose 0.148 to 3.528. |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3625; (P) 1.3685; (R1) 1.3720; More.... Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3629 support holds. Firm break of 1.3860 will target 1.3976 high. However, break of 1.3629 will mix up the near term outlook. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3586), or even further to 61.8% retracement of 1.3261 to 1.3860 at 1.3490. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Feb | 0.20% | 0.40% | 1.90% | 1.80% | | 11:00 | GBP | BoE Quarterly Bulletin | | 12:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Feb P | -89.9B | -91.5B | | 12:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Feb P | 0.20% | -0.40% | | 13:00 | USD | Housing Price Index M/M Jan | -0.20% | -0.10% | | 13:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Jan | 4.50% | 4.60% | | 14:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Mar | 101.7 | 102.9 |
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