Yen Takes Center Stage as Falling Yields and Strong Core-Core Inflation Boost Gains
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-24-23 |
Yen Takes Center Stage as Falling Yields and Strong Core-Core Inflation Boost Gains |
Yen is drawing some attention in today's Asian trading session, supported by declining benchmark US and European treasury yields and robust core-core inflation in Japan. Risk-sensitive currencies, such as Sterling and commodity currencies, are under pressure as major Asian indexes trade lower. Dollar is recovering against the Euro but still lags far behind for the week. Market focus will shift to Eurozone and UK PMI data, Canadian retail sales, and US durable goods orders later today. For the week, Euro is the standout performer thus far, as ECB's tightening could extend longer, while Fed and BoE appear closer to pausing based on this week's meetings. Yen, currently in second place, could potentially overtake Euro if bond rallies continue. Swiss Franc is the third strongest currency, while Australian and New Zealand dollars are the weakest performers this week, trailed by Dollar and Canadian. Technically, Gold is back pressing 2000 handle after defending 1936.15 support earlier in the week. The real test lies in 61.8% projection of 1614.60 to 1959.47 from 1804.48 at 2017.60. Sustained break there could solidify upside momentum to push Gold through historical high at 2074.84. If realizes, the development could signal more downside in Dollar, in particular against Yen. In Japan, Nikkei closed down -0.20%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.77%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.73%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.016 at 0.290. Overnight, DOW rose 0.23%. S&P 500 rose 0.30%. NASDAQ rose 1.01%. 10-year yield dropped -0.094 to 3.406. |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.23; (P) 130.94; (R1) 131.57; More... USD/JPY's fall from 137.90 continues today and edged lower to 130.04. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 151.93 to 122.61 fibonacci projection level. On the upside, break of 132.99 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:00 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 48.7 | 50.5 | | 22:00 | AUD | Services PMI Mar P | 48.2 | 50.7 | | 23:30 | JPY | CPI Y/Y Feb | 3.30% | 4.10% | 4.30% | | 23:30 | JPY | CPI ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Feb | 3.10% | 3.10% | 4.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y Feb | 3.50% | 3.40% | 3.20% | | 00:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Mar | -36 | -35 | -38 | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 48.6 | 48.2 | 47.7 | | 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Mar P | 53.8 | 54 | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Feb | 0.20% | 0.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales Y/Y Feb | -4.70% | -5.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel M/M Feb | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel Y/Y Feb | -4.70% | -5.30% | | 08:15 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 48.2 | 47.4 | | 08:15 | EUR | France Services PMI Mar P | 53 | 53.1 | | 08:30 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 47.1 | 46.3 | | 08:30 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Mar P | 51.1 | 50.9 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 48.9 | 48.5 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Mar P | 52.9 | 52.7 | | 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 50 | 49.3 | | 09:30 | GBP | Services PMI Mar P | 53.1 | 53.5 | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Jan | 0.70% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jan | 0.60% | -0.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Feb | 0.40% | -4.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Feb | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Mar P | 47.3 | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Mar P | 50.6 |
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