A Packed Day With UK Employment, Swiss CPI, German ZEW, and US CPI
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-13-24 |
A Packed Day With UK Employment, Swiss CPI, German ZEW, and US CPI |
New Zealand Dollar falls notably during Asian session, triggered by the latest survey from the RBNZ, which revealed a further easing in inflation expectations. The implications of these findings have prompted traders to pare back the bets on the likelihood of more monetary tightening imminent meeting February. Australian Dollar is also dragged down by the Kiwi and trades as the second weakest for the moment. Meanwhile, Japanese Yen finds itself on the losing end as well, contributing to the extended rally in Nikkei, which soared to a new 34-year high, breaking past the 37,000 psychological level. On the contrary, Dollar stands out as the day's strongest performer for now, with the financial markets on edge for the upcoming US CPI data release. Analysts are forecasting deceleration in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9% in January, alongside minor decrease in core CPI from 3.9% to 3.8%. It should be emphasized that the broadening of disinflation from goods to services sectors remains a critical consideration for Fed. The pace and timing of rate rate cuts hinge on this data. Presently, Fed fund futures indicate a 57% likelihood of a rate cut by May, with the probability exceeding 90% by June... |
USD/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8733; (P) 0.8747; (R1) 0.8763; More.... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside despite loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Current rise from 0.8332 should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995. On the downside, below 0.8725 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.8550 support holds. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb | 6.20% | -1.30% | | 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Jan | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.20% | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Jan | 1 | -1 | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions Jan | 6 | 7 | | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Inflation Expectations Q1 | 2.50% | 2.76% | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jan | -9.90% | | 07:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Jan | 15.2K | 11.7K | | 07:00 | GBP | Unemployment rate Dec | 4.00% | 4.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Dec | 5.70% | 6.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Dec | 6.00% | 6.60% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI M/M Jan | 0.60% | 0% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI Y/Y Jan | 1.60% | 1.70% | | 10:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb | 17.5 | 15.2 | | 10:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Feb | -79 | -77.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb | 20.1 | 22.7 | | 11:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index Jan | 91.1 | 91.9 | | 13:30 | USD | CPI M/M Jan | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Jan | 2.90% | 3.40% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Jan | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Jan | 3.80% | 3.90% |
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