Dollar initially surged after Fed decided to double tapering pace and indicated there could be as many as three rate hikes next year. Nevertheless, the rally attempted was choked off by strong risk-on rally in stocks. Investors seemed to be relieved that firstly, Fed is still cautious on the developments with Omicron. Secondly, the uncertainty regarding pace of rate hike was removed. The greenback is still the strongest was for the week so far, but is kept inside last week's range except versus Yen and Canadian. Focus will turn to BoE and ECB policy decisions today. SNB will be featured too be it's more likely a non-event. Suggested readings on Fed, ECB and BoE: Hawkish Fed Anticipates Three or More Rate Hikes Next Year FOMC Increases Tapering, Sees 3 Rate Hikes In 2022 AND 2023 Fed Research Review: Catching Up to Reality – First Rate Hike Likely in May ECB Preview – Phase-Out of PEPP by March as Scheduled ECB Meeting: Shadow Tapering ECB Meeting: High Inflation Still Transitory Or Time To Talk Tapering? BOE Preview – Delaying Rate Hike to February 2022 BoE Preview: Will The BoE Push Back To February? Technically, USD/JPY's break of 133.94 minor resistance is sign a progress, as rebound from 112.52 is resuming towards 115.51 high. Yet, we'd maintain that the greenback will need to move out from near term ranges to confirm it's direction. To be specific, the ranges to breakout from are 1.1185/1.3820 in EUR/USD, 1.3158/1.3351 in GBP/USD, 0.9156/0.9372 in USD/CHF and 112.52/115.51 in USD/JPY. |
