Dollar Reverses Post-Election Gains as Markets Seek Clarity on Fed's Rate Path
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-8-24 |
Dollar Reverses Post-Election Gains as Markets Seek Clarity on Fed's Rate Path |
Yen jumps broadly in Asian trading today, boosted by heightened government warnings against the recent selloff on the currency. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a strong statement addressing the “one-sided and drastic moves” in Yen, confirming that the government is monitoring the situation with the “utmost sense of urgency.” He emphasized Japan’s commitment to take “appropriate actions” to counter what it considers excessive volatility. Supporting this stance, Japanese Ministry of Finance released quarterly data revealing substantial interventions earlier last quarter. On July 11, Japan spent JPY 3.168T on dollar-selling intervention, followed by an additional JPY 2.367T on July 12. These efforts successfully lifted the Yen from a low of 161.76 to 157.30 within two days, effectively defending the critical 160 psychological level. Adding a broader regional perspective, South Korea’s Finance Minister, Choi Sang-mok, also announced an expanded 24-hour monitoring framework that will now include financial markets and foreign exchange alongside ongoing concerns related to the Middle East. Minister Choi assured markets that South Korean authorities are prepared to act swiftly if volatility spikes in the currency or financial markets. The coordinated messages from both Japan and South Korea suggest the possibility of regional intervention should depreciation pressures on Yen and South Korean Won intensify, highlighting a collective commitment to maintaining currency stability in the face of global economic uncertainties... |
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.80; (P) 165.39; (R1) 165.79; More.... EUR/JPY's retreat from 166.67 extends lower today but stays above 164.25 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38 will pave the way to retest 175.41 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 164.25 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 163.36). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep | 2.80% | 3.00% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Sep | 4.61B | 5.28B | 5.64B | 5.28B | | 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance (USD) Oct | 95.7B | 73.5B | 81.7B | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Sep | -2.50% | -1.00% | 2.90% | 2.60% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep | 17.0B | 24.3B | 22.5B | | 08:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Oct | 719B | 716B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 12:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 4.75% | 4.75% | 5.00% | | 12:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0--8--1 | 0--8--1 | 0--1--8 | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1) | 221K | 220K | 216K | 218K | | 13:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q3 P | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q3 P | 1.90% | 1.10% | 0.40% | | 15:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Sep F | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 67B | 78B | | 19:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.75% | 5.00% | | 19:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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