Dollar Slides as Harris Takes Iowa Lead; FOMC Adds to High-Stakes Election Week
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-4-24 |
Dollar Slides as Harris Takes Iowa Lead; FOMC Adds to High-Stakes Election Week |
Dollar took a notable downturn in the Asian session, and picking up downward momentum too, following a weekend poll that showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris edging ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa. Although Harris’s 47% to 44% lead falls within the 3.4% margin of error, this development marks a significant shift in a state that Trump won by considerable margins in both his previous campaigns—over 9 points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020. The market interpretation of a Harris lead versus a Trump win are starkly different. Some analysts suggest that a Trump victory, particularly with unified control of Congress, would likely be bullish for Dollar. A unified GOP government could drive a sell-off in Treasuries, pushing yields higher and boosting the greenback. On the other hand, a Harris victory paired with a split Congress could prompt an unwinding of “Trump trades,” as markets would likely adjust expectations away from pro-growth fiscal policies that would otherwise drive Dollar strength.... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6545; (P) 0.6568; (R1) 0.6583; More... AUD/USD recovers further today as consolidation from 0.6536 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point, and further decline remains expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6692) holds. On the downside, sustained break of 0.61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348 support next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:00 | AUD | TD-MI Inflation Gauge M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 08:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Oct | 44.5 | 44.5 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct | 42.6 | 42.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct | 45.9 | 45.9 | | 09:30 | EUR | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Nov | -12.7 | -13.8 | | 15:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Sep | -0.40% | -0.20% |
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