Sterling Rallies After Strong UK Retail Sales, Yen Recovers on Japan's Verbal Intervention
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-18-24 |
Sterling Rallies After Strong UK Retail Sales, Yen Recovers on Japan's Verbal Intervention |
Sterling rises broadly today, driven by unexpectedly strong retail sales figures for September. This recovery suggests that the negative impact of weaker-than-expected CPI data earlier in the week has been fully absorbed by the market. While it now seems likely that BoE will proceed with interest rate cuts in November, the pace of monetary easing is expected to be more cautious compared to ECB or Fed, unless the UK economy experiences a more pronounced downturn. Meanwhile, Yen also gained some strength today after USD/JPY pair briefly broke through the 150 psychological support. This triggered verbal intervention from Japanese officials, with Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura cautioning about "one-sided, sudden moves" in the currency market. He emphasized that Japan is monitoring the situation closely for signs of speculative activity, signaling the government’s readiness to act if needed. In broader market movements, sentiment across Asia received a lift following People’s Bank of China's implementation of specialized lending facilities aimed at supporting share buybacks and providing liquidity to institutional investors. These moves were part of the central bank's broader efforts to stabilize financial markets, initially outlined in a major announcement at the end of September.... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2982; (P) 1.3003; (R1) 1.3031; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, sustained trading below 1.3000 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2999) will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2732. Nevertheless, strong bounce from current level, followed by break of 1.3102 minor resistance, will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.3433. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Sep | 2.50% | 3.00% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Sep | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core-Core Y/Y Sep | 2.10% | 2.00% | | 02:00 | CNY | GDP Y/Y Q3 | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.70% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Sep | 5.40% | 4.60% | 4.50% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Sep | 3.20% | 2.40% | 2.10% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Sep | 3.40% | 3.30% | 3.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.30% | -0.30% | 1.00% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Aug | 42.2B | 39.6B | | 12:30 | USD | Housing Starts M/M Sep | 1.360M | 1.356M | | 12:30 | USD | Building Permits M/M Sep | 1.460M | 1.470M |
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