Aussie Bounces on Strong Employment Data, But Concerns Over China Keep Gains in Check
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-17-24 |
Aussie Bounces on Strong Employment Data, But Concerns Over China Keep Gains in Check |
Australian Dollar saw a modest rebound in the Asian session today, buoyed by much stronger-than-expected employment data. The Australian labor market continues to display resilience, with full-time jobs rising sharply, pushing the total over 10 million for the first time, while unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. This robust labor market data has dashed any hopes for a near-term RBA rate cut. While some had hoped that rate reductions could come sooner, today's data suggests that the first policy shift will still likely be deferred until February next year, depending upon Q3 CPI figures due on October 30. Despite this positive surprise, momentum for Aussie remains relatively weak. The underwhelming press conference from China’s Ministry of Housing, PBoC, and National Financial Regulatory Administration left markets disappointed. While China pledged to expand its “whitelist” of real estate projects and increase bank lending to unfinished developments by CNY 4T, analysts largely viewed these moves as "fine-tuning" of existing policies rather than the substantial stimulus package that markets had hoped for. This led to only a modest rebound in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets.... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6646; (P) 0.6678; (R1) 0.6699; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current recovery, but further decline is expected as long as 0.6758 resistance holds. Below 0.6657 will resume the fall from 0.6941 short term top to 0.6621 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 0.6348 support next. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.6758 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6941 instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Sep | -0.19T | -0.49T | -0.60T | -0.47T | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Q3 | -6 | -1 | -2 | | 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change Sep | 64.1K | 25.2K | 47.5K | 42.6K | | 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Sep | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.10% | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M Aug | -1.10% | -0.20% | 1.40% | 2.20% | | 06:00 | CHF | Trade Balance (CHF) Sep | 4.85B | 4.58B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Aug | 17.8B | 15.5B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep F | 1.80% | 1.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Sep F | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 3.40% | 3.65% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Deposit Facility | 3.25% | 3.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) | 241K | 258K | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Sep | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Survey Oct | 3 | 1.7 | | 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Sep | -0.10% | 0.80% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Sep | 77.80% | 78.00% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Aug | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Oct | 43 | 41 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 80B | 82B | | 15:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 4.5B | 5.81M |
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