Good morning, Broadsheet readers! Nancy Pelosi opens up about her husband’s attack, Kathy Griffin is suspended from Twitter for impersonating Elon Musk, and the issues that will influence women’s voter turnout in today’s election.
– Today’s the day. Americans are voting in midterm elections today, and the results will be both eye-opening and politically transformative after a whirlwind legislative year.
Following the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade, which leaves abortion laws to states, voters in California, Vermont, Kentucky, Michigan, and Montana will decide on statewide abortion referendums on Tuesday. In August, Kansas, a conservative state, overwhelmingly rejected a ballot measure that would have removed abortion rights from the state’s constitution.
While Kansas’s vote to repudiate abortion bans indicates that some Republican-leaning states have a more middle-line view of reproductive rights, economic uncertainty has since become a greater focus for Americans burdened by rocketing prices for everyday essentials like gas and groceries.
The economy is now the top election issue for voters, according to an October Gallup poll, though abortion and crime follow closely behind.
The midterms may also illuminate some demographic shifts. White suburban women, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans by 15 percentage points because of growing economic concerns, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday. White suburban women favored Democrats by 12 percentage points in the Journal’s August poll, suggesting the summer fervor over abortion rights has since waned.
“There was some expectation over the summer, right after the [Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization] decision, that there was going to be this energy from women voters…and that it would motivate them to turn out to vote,” says Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. But as women find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet, many are looking to support the party that isn’t in power.
Still, voters say abortion is their second priority issue. And for women, who are more politically motivated by abortion issues than men, it could prompt a higher poll turnout.
“Women are always registered at higher numbers than men. They outvote men,” Walsh says. In the last presidential election, 9.7 million more women voted than men. “The question is, will that be even greater this time?” she wonders.
Their turnout could also spell the fate of the record number of women running for state and gubernatorial office.
Twenty-five women are running for governor across 20 states, and this election will likely break the record of nine female governors serving at once, first set in 2004.
“There is still that hurdle voters have about women as chief executives. It doesn’t fit the stereotype of who leads at the very, very top,” says Walsh. “Women are disrupting those stereotypes when they serve in those positions and when they vie for those positions.”
Nineteen states have never voted in a woman governor, but that could change this election. In Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former White House press secretary to Donald Trump and daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, is poised to win against Democratic challenger Chris Jones. And in Georgia, Stacey Abrams could become the state’s first female governor—and the country‘s first Black female governor—should she defeat incumbent Brian Kemp.
Outcomes for women in Congress look less strong. Fewer women are running than in past years, and some of the candidates most vulnerable to losses this year are women who flipped their seats in 2018. But there are still several notable races. No Black woman has served in the Senate since Kamala Harris’s VP appointment. This election, four Black women are running for a U.S. Senate seat, including Democrat Cheri Beasley, who trails Republican Ted Budd in North Carolina by just 5%. In Florida, Democrat Val Demings is facing off against incumbent Republican Marco Rubio, though Rubio leads by an average of 9.2%.
Tomorrow, the Broadsheet will hit your inboxes with updates on election results.
Paige McGlauflin
[email protected]
@paidion
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