If it’s THURSDAY … For Trump, the call came from inside the house — the Wall Street Journal reports that there’s a government informant in Trump’s inner circle … Trump invokes the 5th Amendment during a deposition with the New York A.G.’s office … Gas prices fall below $4 a gallon … Biden kicks off his family vacation in South Carolina … and Pelosi says the House will vote on the Inflation Reduction Act on Friday. But FIRST … House Democrats have been bracing for a rough midterm. But there are a few signs it might not be so bad. This week, there was a closer-than-expected special election in Minnesota, which followed a surprisingly narrow margin in a Nebraska special election in late June. There was also the blockbuster turnout and defeat of an anti-abortion rights ballot initiative in ruby red Kansas. And there’s another test of midterm momentum later this month. On Aug. 23, two county executives, Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro, will face off in a special election in New York’s 19th District to replace former Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado, who was tapped to be the state’s lieutenant governor. “New York 19 is pretty evenly divided, so it reflects that polarization that’s in the country,” said former GOP Rep. John Faso, who represented the district from 2017-2019. Voters there backed former President Barack Obama twice, supported former President Donald Trump in 2016, and then went narrowly for President Joe Biden in 2020. So the sprawling district along the Hudson River is fertile ground for both parties to test their strategies three months out from Election Day. Yesterday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a joint TV ad with Ryan’s campaign focused squarely on abortion rights. (The DCCC’s spending is notable — the committee did not invest significant resources in a Texas special election just two months ago, arguing the seat would soon disappear due to redistricting). The National Republican Congressional Committee teamed up with Molinaro for a TV ad highlighting inflation. “The outcome that we see here is going to tell us a lot about what's to come in the midterms. It's also going to tell us a lot about how to message,” said Ryan’s campaign manager, Chris Walsh. Of course, as the cliché goes, special elections are special. The timing of this election late in the summer, on the same day the state’s congressional primaries, which were delayed from June, makes turnout unpredictable. Remember just two months ago, when Democrats lost that special election in Texas? Some Democrats saw it as a sign that they were losing ground among Latino voters, and were headed for a wipeout in November. Mixed together with a shaky economy and Biden’s low favorability rating, those dynamics could still be devastating for Democrats in the fall. It’s tempting to read a lot into these special elections. But they can still provide some clues about where the political winds are blowing. So what could the New York special election reveal? ”I’ll tell you on Aug. 24,” Faso said. |