| | | | Monday, March 29, 2021 | | Hope you're ready for another record-breaking season of offense across the NFL. Though this time, it won't be because of a lack of training camp or practice time -- it's because we're getting an extra week added to the NFL schedule. | | That is expected to be announced sometime this week, according to reports from ESPN this weekend, though it doesn't exactly come as a surprise. This has been expected for quite some time, we're just waiting for it to be made official at this point. And it will obviously have an impact on how your Fantasy league works, though we don't know all of the details for how this schedule change will play out. The expectation is that there will be an extra week added to the end of the season, with the Super Bowl moving back a week along with it. No extra bye week is known to be included, and it's not clear yet what kind of impact this will have on roster sizes or preseason. You can read more of the expected details here. | | The most obvious is that, well, you'll have an extra week of the season to play with in Fantasy. The simplest way to approach this is to simply extend your regular season one week, with three-week playoffs starting in Week 15 and ending in Week 17; two-week playoffs would start in 16 and end in 17. If you've been playing with just four players making the playoffs, this would be a good excuse to expand the postseason and add in a wild card round, because you can keep your regular season the same length. | | Of course, that's the simple part of this. The more complicated part -- and the part we can't know yet -- is what kind of impact it's going to have on injuries around the league, as well as how teams will approach player usage. With an extra week to account for, will teams be less willing to ride their stars for 90% of their offensive snaps? Will they be more conservative with how they approach minor injuries? Will they be more willing to rest players late in the season? My assumption is the answer to all of those questions will be "yes." Obviously, it will change from team to team, but my expectation at this point is that we'll see more injuries and more teams taking a proactive approach with rest. | | That will have a significant impact on how Fantasy is played, though trying to figure out which players and teams it might apply to ahead of the fact is probably going to be a fool's errand. Right now, the biggest impact is going to be on projections systems -- everyone's projections should be 1/16th higher! Which means I now have Patrick Mahomes projected for 5,000 passing yards and 40-plus touchdowns, which is going to take some getting used to. | | In addition to that news, we had a couple of significant draft-related trades go down this weekend, both centered around Miami's slew of draft picks, and that's the focus of today's newsletter. Because those two trades could really change the outlook for three different teams in fascinating ways. | | Plus, over on CBSSports.com/Fantasy, we've got some new content for those of you in Dynasty leagues, as Heath Cummings' updated rankings have been updated for QB, RB, WR and TE, along with his Dynasty Trade Values chart. Plus, we did our first post-free agency mock draft , and while I'll have a quick breakdown of that draft and my team plus my thoughts on where the player pool stands after free agency later this week for the newsletter, you can check out the results here for now. Plus, we'll have free agency winners and losers, projections updates and a mailbag later in the week, so send your questions to [email protected] to be included in this week's edition. | | For now, let's catch up on the weekend's news: | | | | Dolphins shake up top 10 with trades | | The Dolphins first moved down and then back up in the first round in the span of just a few hours Friday, swapping spots with the 49ers and then the Eagles in their deals. Let's look at what it means for all three teams, starting with the 49ers, who may have dramatically changed the future of their franchise with the deal: | | The 49ers acquired the No. 3 overall pick from the Dolphins | | Well … it sure sounds like the 49ers are moving up to get their quarterback of the future. Auburn's Trevor Lawrence is a foregone conclusion to be the No. 1 pick to the Jaguars, and it seems like BYU's Zach Wilson is the fast-riser of this year's class and could go to the Jets at No. 2. So, is it Georgia's Justin Fields who is on their mind? | | That would be a fascinating pick, because his athleticism could open up even more ways for the always-creative Kyle Shanahan to build up his running game. Already one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the league, the 49ers could go to another level with Fields allowing them to incorporate the read-option into their offense more. The questions about Fields mostly revolve around whether he will be able to succeed as a passer at the NFL level, but San Francisco could absolutely be one of the ideal landing spots for him in that regard, too. Shanahan's offense has been built around creating high-probability passes that put the ball in the hands of his playmakers with room to run after the catch. With George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, that could be a very soft landing for Fields, who could eventually grow into a superstar in this offense. | | And he would need to be, because the 49ers went all in here. The good news is, the same thing that makes this such a good landing spot for Fields also makes this a great landing spot for any QB. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB, but I don't think anyone would argue at this point that he's special. And yet he has managed 8.3 yards per attempt and a 5.2% touchdown rate in his 31 games with the 49ers. Any QB who lands here -- Mac Jones, Trey Lance being the other two main first-round prospects -- would be in line to be Fantasy relevant if they start. | | As for Garoppolo? Well, he would probably have plenty of trade value on his own if the 49ers look to make a move, and the Patriots have been mentioned as one potentially interested team. I'd prefer to see Cam Newton remain the starter there, and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion the 49ers would move Garoppolo either way -- they've talked about wanting to have more depth at the position after they've been stuck with sub-par replacements in Garoppolo's absence. | | Either way, the 49ers offense is going to be an exciting one for Fantasy. The question at this point is more about degrees. This could be one of the best in the NFL with the right talent at QB, because the pieces fit everywhere else. | | | | The Dolphins acquired the No. 6 and 156 overall pick, a 2023 first-rounder and a 2022 third-rounder | | So, in the end, Miami moved back three spots in the draft and picked up a future first and a future third. Not bad. They've made flexibility a hallmark of their rebuild, and they have about as much ammo as anyone in the league for a future trade, and that's a good place to be in when you think you've got your future at QB set. And this trade seems to indicate that the Dolphins believe they have their future set at QB with Tua Tagovailoa. | | That doesn't mean they won't try to take a QB, but moving back seems to indicate it isn't as much of a priority. Nor should it be -- Tagovailoa wasn't amazing as a rookie, but it's not like he was as bad as Jared Goff or Mitchell Trubisky in their rookie seasons. And, with the addition of Will Fuller, his receiving corps looks a lot more dangerous now than it did when he fell just a game short of leading the Dolphins to the playoffs. The question is, what will they do with that pick? For Tua's sake, Florida tight end Kyle Pittswould seem to be the ideal option, giving Tagovailoa a bevy of dynamic athletes and playmakers to throw to between Pitts, Fuller, Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Pitts and Gesicki could both line up at wide receiver or in line and would create matchup problems all over the field. | | Of course, that might not be the ideal outcome for Fantasy purposes, because all of a sudden there would be a lot of competition for targets and a lot riding on Tagovailoa taking a big step forward. I fully believe he's capable of it, but if Pitts were added to the mix, it would be tough to trust either him or Gesicki as a starting Fantasy tight end, while Fuller and Parker would both see their target shares diminished. Talent tends to win out, however, and if the Dolphins added that kind of talent to their offense, nobody would be upset. | | The Eagles acquired the No. 12 and 123 overall pick and a 2022 first-round pick from the Dolphins for No. 6 and 156 | | The Eagles side of this makes sense, since they seemingly aren't in the market for a quarterback and have several long-term holes that need filling. On offense, that most obvious need is at wide receiver, and this is a pretty great class for one. They could snag one of the Alabama wide receivers like Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle to be the No. 1 option next to 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor. It's fair to wonder if they might need more help at offensive line, but if they are going to build around Jalen Hurts at QB, they probably need to give him some more playmakers -- his athleticism should mitigate some of the offensive line woes, as we saw when he took over for Carson Wentz. | | One interesting wrinkle is that the Eagles apparently did consider trying to trade up for Wilson, though they've apparently moved off that idea. The best idea is to see what they have in Hurts and give him a chance -- he showed enough last season to earn that much, at least. With that in mind, this move was probably made with the thought of adding to a team built around Hurts, though that extra 2021 pick could help them move on if they chose to do so next year. | | | | News and Notes | | T.Y. Hilton re-signed with the Colts -- Apparently Hilton turned down a pretty big offer from the Ravens before opting to sign with the Colts for one more year, and that's better for his Fantasy appeal for sure. Hopefully, Wentz can return to his former highs, because Hilton should remain the No. 1 receiver here next to up-and-comer Michael Pittman. He'll be just a No. 3 WR in drafts, but he showed late last season that he still has something left in the tank. The Ravens signed Sammy Watkins -- The Ravens were probably hoping to get a better WR out of free agency, but Watkins was the best one they could manage. He's fine, but pretty unexciting. He should give Lamar Jackson another WR who can win in the intermediate and downfield areas, but they could still really use a true No. 1 who can demand the attention of the defense. Watkins could be the No. 1 WR for the Ravens, but it's unlikely to make him more than a low-end Fantasy option. The Bills signed Matt Breida -- Breida gives the Bills another look in the running back room, adding speed to the too-same-y mix of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. That could help him stand out, but this isn't a good situation for running backs anyway, so Breida probably won't have much value either way. The Jets signed Tevin Coleman -- This is a pretty good landing spot for Coleman, who has struggled to make an impact since leaving the Falcons, with injuries playing a big part. La'Mical Perine is the best incumbent back the Jets have, so it wouldn't be hard for Coleman to emerge as the lead back by training camp, where he could be a low-end starting option. The Bears signed Damien Williams -- Williams looked great in the Chiefs offense in 2018 and 2019, but there probably won't be much room for him in Chicago unless David Montgomery gets hurt, and even then, Tarik Cohen figures to keep his role as a pass catcher, so Williams won't be worth drafting in most leagues. The Patriots re-signed James White -- The change from Tom Brady to Cam Newton changed the Patriots offense immensely, and one of the biggest changes came with White's usage -- he saw just 62 targets, his fewer since 2015. That shouldn't change much in 2021, so he's just PPR bench depth at this point. Washington signed Adam Humphries -- With the signings of Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, Humphries is the No. 3 WR at best here, and with two pass-catching backs and Logan Thomas, there probably won't be much room for Humphries to be Fantasy relevant. | | | | | | | | Nonstop Tournament Coverage | | March Madness Live | Don't miss a single buzzer beater or bracket-busting upset! 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