| | | | Wednesday, February 5, 2025 | | 49 days until Opening Day ... | | There's no doubt that the first base position wasn't very good in 2024. But there's a bit of disagreement among the Fantasy Baseball Today team about what that means for drafting in 2025. And I think I'm on the optimistic side of things right now. | | 2024 was a bad year for first basemen. There's no way around it. FanGraphs.com has a tool that allows you to separate what a hitter did at a specific position, and 2025 was the worst season in their archive (which goes back to 2002. First basemen in 2024 combined for just a 107 wRC+, just the third time in 23 seasons with a mark below 110 – and the average is 113 in that span. | | Can I throw another stat at you? Pete Alonso led the position with 34 homers, which is as low a number as it sounds. It's the first time there wasn't at least one player who played at least 25% of his games at first base who hit at least 35 homers since 1988. That's the year I was born, and as my receding hairline and bad back will attest, I am no longer a particularly young man. That's a bad sign, both for the first base position and, frankly, me. | | The problem is, the older guys are still running the position, and the next generation just hasn't stepped up yet. Among the top 10 at the position in 2024, Spencer Steer, Josh Naylor, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are the only ones who are under 30, and Steer is the only one to make his MLB debut in the past five seasons. | | The youth movement has largely failed us, with high-profile busts from the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Andrew Vaughn, Evan White, Nick Pratto, and others at the position really holding things back. And it doesn't help that Triston Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have struggled to even establish themselves as everyday players over the past couple of seasons, with all three missing significant time in 2024, especially. | | But that's kind of where my optimism comes from. I haven't given up on Casas' breakout potential, and I'm mostly willing to give Encarnacion-Strand a pass for 2024 – in a way it's clear most other Fantasy analysts aren't. And I'm very excited about the breakout potential of Michael Toglia, especially. And I'm also starting to talk myself into the potential for Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt to exceed expectations in 2025 with the Yankees. | | I agree with everyone else that first base doesn't have the sure-fire superstar sluggers up and down the rankings that we're used to. But I also think we're more likely to look back at 2024 as more like a fallow period than the start of some new paradigm. 2024 was something like a worst-case scenario for the first base position, and I think we're going to get some bouncebacks (Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman ), some expected breakouts (Casas), and even some unexpected ones (looking at you, Toglia). | | | | In Tuesday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, we dove deep into our thoughts about the first base position, and you can head here to watch Frank Stampfl, Scott White, and I break it all down. In the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to be pulling from that, as well as Scott White's First Base strategies piece and my First Base Preview on CBSSports.com to make sure you know what you need to tackle the position. | | Let's take a closer look: | | | | 2025 First Preview | | "What ... the heck? | | First base is supposed to be big and beautiful, just a treasure trove of sluggers, but that's not what I'm seeing now. In fact, I regret to report that only four first basemen had 30-plus homers last year, and the leader, Pete Alonso, had just 34. The last time the home run leader at first base had so few was 2012. | | You're not getting base-stealers at first base, obviously, so suffice it to say the position is as thin as it's been in a long time, a product of some of the mainstays getting older and some of the newcomers not living up to their potential yet. And while prospects like Nick Kurtz, Bryce Eldridge, and Jac Caglianone represent hope for the future, we're stuck with the same old cast of characters for now. | | So how do we make the most of it? That's something I'm still working through. I've found in early drafts that first base is the position where I'm most likely to get boxed out. The studs at the position all go in quick succession, and the same is true for the mid-tier options, which means if you're not intentional about taking one, you're left to pick through the leftovers." | | -From Scott White's 'First Base Strategies' column | | | | Offseason Recap | | Pete Alonso remains a free agentChristian Walker signed with the AstrosJosh Naylor traded to the DiamondbacksCody Bellinger traded to the YankeesJake Burger traded to the RangersNathaniel Lowe traded to the NationalsPaul Goldschmidt signed with the Yankees Carlos Santana signed with the Guardians Josh Bell signed with the Nationals | | It was a busy offseason, as you can see. Around one-third of the league will probably have a different primary first baseman in 2025 than they did in 2024, and at least in some of these cases, we're hoping the change of scenery will be for the better. It think that's a reasonable assumption for Burger, Bellinger, and Goldschmidt, at least, and it could be so for Walker, too -- he's a right-handed batter with the Crawford Boxes sitting there temptingly in left field, after all. | | Alonso's status is one of the biggest stories remaining in free agency, of course, and the hope here is that he comes to an agreement before Spring Training starts so the start of his season isn't delayed or otherwise disrupted. I have my concerns about Alonso in 2025 and beyond, and it's worrying that MLB teams seem to have those same concerns, unfortunately. | | Consensus rankings | | For breakdowns of each of the top 12 and more, head here. | | Vladimir Guerrero, Blue Jays (The First Rounders Tier) Bryce Harper, PhilliesFreddie Freeman, Dodgers (The Elite Tier) Matt Olson, BravesPete Alonso, FA (The Near-Elite Tier)Salvador Perez, Royals Josh Naylor, Guardians Christian Walker AstrosCody Bellinger, YankeesSpencer Steer, RedsVinnie Pasquantino, RoyalsTriston Casas, Red Sox (The Next-Best Things Tier) | | One Sleeper at First Base | | Deyvison De Los Santos, Marlins | | It might take some time to come to fruition because the Marlins do have a glut of guys at first base and DH right now. So we might see them cycle through the likes of Kyle Stowers, Jonah Bride, Griffin Conine , and Matt Mervis before they turn things over to De Los Santos. But … well, just look at that list of guys. I'm not saying there aren't major-league-caliber skills scattered among them, but they're all probably just guys. In fact, it might be the highest concentration of "Just A Guy" guys in MLB history. De Los Santos won't be 22 until close to midseason and is coming off a season where he hit .264/.311/.523 with nearly a 40-homer pace in his first taste of Triple-A, so while he has a similar skill set to the rest of those guys, there's clearly a bit more upside here. There's a real chance he just replaces Jake Burger for the Marlins, right down to the 30 beefy homers. | | One Breakout at First Base | | Triston Casas, Red Sox | | We'll just run back last year's first base breakout pick with only slightly less enthusiasm. A rib injury cost Casas a huge chunk of last season and he took a big step back with his plate discipline, but I'm hoping the latter was a result of the former. If so, Casas remains one of the most intriguing potential power bats out there, with a high-end outcome that probably looks something like the median Matt Olson season even in a home park that makes it tough for him to live up to his full power potential. Casas hits the ball hard in the air, holds his own against lefties (.772 career OPS), and remains a young bat worth betting on. And if he gets that strikeout rate back down to 25%, where it was in 2023, the upside scenarios get really fun to dream about – remember, he had 15 homers in just 54 games after the All-Star break in 2023. | | One Bust at First Base | | Pete Alonso, Mets | | The vibes aren't great for Alonso. A protracted, disappointing (for him) free agency process was easy to see coming from a mile away, and MLB team's lack of interest in his services is a reflection of how the one-dimensional slugger is valued, sure, but also how Alonso is expected to age. He's an all-fields slugger whose quality-of-contact metrics have been moving in the wrong direction since his peak. Alonso is still typically among the best power hitters in the league by the end of the season, but it's a profile without much margin for error – despite decent contact rates, he has hit .240 or worse in consecutive seasons, with a sub-.250 xBA in each season. If he returns to the Mets, he's going to drive in a ton of runs and probably be worth this price, but is that .240 average and 35-ish homers worth this price if it comes with 90-ish RBI in a lesser lineup? Is there that much of a difference between Alonso and Jake Burger in that outcome? I'm not convinced. | | | | | | | | Carabao Cup | | CBS Sports HQ | Tottenham is clinging to a 1-0 lead. With their season on the line, can they hold off Liverpool once more? Watch Liverpool vs. Tottenham streaming live tomorrow at 3PM ET on Paramount+.
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