| | | | Tuesday, January 4, 2022 | | And that's it. For the vast majority of you, the 2021 Fantasy season is over, and it went out with a bit of a whimper with that Monday night game. The less we say about that game – and specifically the performances of Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield, the better. Though, that display of passing ineptitude wasn't totally out of character for the 2021 season. | | League-wide Y/A dropped from 7.24 last season to 7.13 this season, with TD rate dropping from 4.8% to 4.4% and INT rate jumping from 2.2% to 2.4%. Those might not sound like significant changes, but passing production in the NFL generally doesn't move in that direction. And the change mostly came in the second half of the season – from Weeks 1-8 to Weeks 9-17, Y/A fell from 7.36 to 6.89, TD% from 4.65% to 4.18%, while INT% rose from 2.26% to 2.46%. | | As a result, the top 12 quarterbacks went from averaging 26.6 points per game in four-point-per-pass-TD scoring to 24.4. The drop was less pronounced at wide receiver, but even there, the top 12 went from 18.7 points per game in PPR to 18.3. | | In some ways, that was the end to the Fantasy season 2021 deserved, then. But hey, at least Najee Harris showed out with a potential league-winning performance to close out the championship game. He'll be a top-10 RB for me in 2022 for sure. I've got the first look at my RB rankings for 2022 ready for today's newsletter, and before you write in angry messages about them, at least read my justification. But, as always, your angry messages can be directed to [email protected]. | | I'll also have Jamey Eisenberg's top waiver-wire targets for Week 18 for those of you still playing. We'll have the rankings for each position in Wednesday's edition, along with Heath Cummings' preview of the position, though just be aware that those rankings are more subject to change than even your typical week, since we're waiting to find out which teams will and won't rest players. That is, of course, the curse of playing into Week 18. | | Also, we're still taking votes for the 2021 Fantasy Football Today awards, so head here to vote on the Fantasy MVP, Rookie of the Year, and more. That link is here, and I'll be unveiling the winners Friday, so get your votes in now! | | | Early 2022 RB Rankings
| | | | So, there's a controversial take here. I recognize that, though I want to be clear that this isn't just because I want to be controversial. Christian McCaffrey is my No. 1 RB for 2022 because I think he's the best running back for Fantasy still, especially in PPR leagues. | | So, here's the case for McCaffrey at No. 1: | | Injuries are, of course, what make this controversial. And I know I'll be in the overwhelming minority in having McCaffrey ahead of Jonathan Taylor. And, to be clear, I readily acknowledge that McCaffrey has more injury risk than Taylor. Or, at least, I think he has more injury risk than Taylor. I don't actually know, which is why I tend to weigh injury risk less than most. | | The truth is, every running back carries pretty significant injury risk. How much more does McCaffrey have than Taylor, Ekeler, or Henry? Well, let's go through the injuries that have limited him to just 10 games over the past two seasons | | Sept., 2020 – Right high-ankle sprain (six games)Dec., 2020 – Shoulder and thigh (four games)Sept., 2021 – Hamstring (five games)Nov., 2021 – Left ankle sprain (six games) | | | | So, no injuries that needed surgery, and no recurring injuries. Just four separate injuries that all needed about a month to a month-and-half to recover from. Does that create more risk than Henry's broken foot that required surgery and cost him at least nine games? That seems just about impossible to assess, to me. It's a draw in my eyes, though I wouldn't be surprised if Henry were ranked ahead of McCaffrey by most in 2022. | | But surely both players have more risk than Taylor, who hasn't missed a game in the pros or in three years of college with injury. Past injury is a decent (though decidedly imperfect) predictor of future injury, and Taylor's record in that regard is sterling. But that doesn't mean he has zero injury risk, just that his baseline level of risk is lower than for McCaffrey or Henry. | | That makes it easy to rank Taylor ahead of Henry, since they were neck and neck in Fantasy points per game this season, the best of each's career – Henry at 23.4 PPR points per game, Taylor at 22.8. McCaffrey was at 18.2, but that jumps to 23.6 per game if you take out the two he left early due to injuries. When healthy, he's still the best running back in Fantasy. | | Of course, Fantasy points per game doesn't tell the whole story. McCaffrey averaged 23.6 per game despite scoring just 0.4 touchdowns per game; Henry and Taylor are both at 1.25. McCaffrey is in a worse offense than either, yes, but that was also true when he averaged 1.3 touchdowns per game between 2019 and 2020, so I think we can chalk that up to a bit of bad luck for 2021. If he had scored four touchdowns in those five games, he would have averaged 26 PPR points per game; if he had scored six, he's at 28.4. | | Which is all to say, I think you have to discount McCaffrey an awful lot for injury to reach the point where Taylor is ahead of him. Based on some back-of-the-napkin math, I'd expect McCaffrey to be anywhere from 10 to 20% better than Taylor on a per-game basis in 2022. I'm not nearly confident enough in my ability to accurately assess injury risk to overcome that kind of gap. | | The good news is, I'll only ever face a decision between Taylor and McCaffrey if I end up with the first overall pick, in all likelihood, so I'll be happy to take McCaffrey with any other pick starting with No. 2. | | | | Christian McCaffrey – He's still the best player in Fantasy when healthy, and he will, presumably be healthy by next summer. Jonathan Taylor – I'd be shocked if Taylor actually went No.2 in more than 5% of leagues in 2022. His track record of health and skills make him an obvious elite Fantasy RB. Austin Ekeler – We've seen elite play from Ekeler in three straight seasons, and he proved he could handle a huge workload while staying healthy in 2021. He has a hugely valuable role in a great offense and the Chargers showed they trust him near the goal line this season, too. He's a perfect modern RB. Derrick Henry – He's gotten better three seasons in a row, and the foot injury is the only thing that has slowed him down. You do have to wonder if the Titans will ease off him just a bit after the injury – he was on pace for 438 carries in 16 games, 22 more than the single-season record. Alvin Kamara – In an incredibly frustrating season playing in an annoyingly conservative offense, Kamara is seventh in PPR scoring per game. The Saints offense almost has to be better in 2022. Dalvin Cook – A lot has gone wrong for Cook this season and he's still a top-10 RB in points per game. If he had scored touchdowns at the same pace as his previous two seasons, Cook would've been RB4. But he's had several shoulder injuries going back to college and may have surgery this offseason, so he carries a decent injury risk discount. D'Andre Swift – It's fair to wonder whether Swift can handle being a No. 1 RB in the NFL, but he's in the right place to maximize his value given how the Lions have used him this season. He's not as good a receiver as Austin Ekeler, but he can have that kind of impact for Fantasy. Najee Harris – This might be too low for Harris, but the Steelers just have so many question marks right now. We don't know who their quarterback will be, which is obviously the biggest one, but that offensive line remains a significant issue as well. However, high-volume, low-efficiency, early-round RBs have historically been a good bet for a year two breakout. Joe Mixon – Basically everything went right for Mixon this season, and we saw a career-best season. The passing game role was frustratingly inconsistent and I'm not sure he has much ceiling beyond his 2021 unless that changes, but he's a fine choice here. Nick Chubb – Chubb probably has the most unlocked potential among running backs, but I'm not sure he'll ever get the passing game role he needs to realize it. He's a high-floor RB with a relatively low ceiling compared to some of his peers. This feels like a good spot for him. | | ➕Top Week 18 Waiver Wire Targets | | | | Here are Jamey's top five waiver-wire targets for Week 18, and you can see the rest of his recommendations here INCLUDE LINK TO PIECE HERE THANKS: | | Jamey Eisenberg's top targets | | Le'Veon Bell, RB, TB 7% – With Ronald Jones (ankle) and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (ribs) leaving Sunday's game, Bell could find himself in line for a significant role in Week 18. At the very least, he should be a solid PPR starter if he's handling most of the passing downs. If he's just an every-down back, he might be one of the top plays at the position. Zay Jones, WR, LV 7% – With Hunter Renfrow stepping in to take on Darren Waller's role as the primary receiver for the Raiders, Jones has stepped into Renfrow's role as the high-volume, shorter-area guy. He's averaging 6.3 catches per game over the past four with 65.5 yards, and with the Raiders still having something to play for this week, he should be in good position for another solid game. Braxton Berrios, WR, NYJ 2% – Berrios has benefited from the Jets ' myriad injuries and absences at wide receiver, and he might just be playing his way into a sizable role on the 2022 team. We'll find out about that in the offseason, but coming off his best game of the season – and with two rushing touchdowns in his past three games – Berrios looks like a solid starter for Week 18. Cyril Grayson, WR, TB 0% – In light of the absences of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown over the past two weeks, Grayson has found himself playing a pretty sizable role, and he's turned that into 81 yards in consecutive games. Look, he's catching passes from Tom Brady , so let's not overcomplicate this. Jaret Patterson, RB, WAS 20% – I thought Patterson might be on the less valuable side of a timeshare with Jonathan Williams in Week 17, but he ended up with 12 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown, and five catches for 41 yards. That was against a much tougher matchup than the one he'll face Sunday, the Giants. If Antonio Gibson can't go again, Patterson looks like a top-20 RB. | | | | | | | | Europe's Best on P+ | | 24/7 Sports News | The 2021/22 UEFA Season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and thrilling in recent times! Watch Europe's Top clubs battle on the road to glory exclusively on Paramount+.
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