| | Wednesday, September 6, 2023 | The Jordan Walker we hyped up in spring training may have finally arrived here in September. The rookie homered for the fourth time in five games Tuesday and is 12 for 19 during that stretch. The exit velocities have reflected the upside throughout -- he's 72nd percentile in average exit velocity and 92nd percentile in max exit velocity -- but it didn't matter when he was putting the ball on the ground 56 percent of the time, like in the first half. It's down to 41 percent in the second half, and we're seeing the difference. | | Another rookie on the radar | Another rookie, one more recently on our radar, has seen his ground-ball rate undermine his exit velocity readings so far, but Noelvi Marte was finally able to come through with his first home run in a 3-for-3 performance Tuesday. Meanwhile, Seiya Suzuki remained hot, going 4 for 5 with a home run and double to give him a .362 batting average, seven homers, 10 doubles and three triples Since Aug. 1. He may actually be available in some leagues, too. Jose Altuve surely isn't, but I'd be remiss not to mention his three-homer day, making him 7 for 11 with five homers in his past two games. Why do I get the sneaking suspicion people will undervalue him again next year? | On the pitching side, Jose Quintana delivered his seventh quality start in eight chances and has frankly been a different pitcher with the end of the juiced ball era last year. Nathan Eovaldi got shellacked in his long-awaited return from a forearm injury, lasting only 1 1/3 innings, and Dane Dunning was likewise a disaster in relief. You're within your right to drop the latter and to worry about the former. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, experienced a velocity drop of nearly 3 mph across the board and is apparently still contending with shoulder troubles, according to manager Dave Roberts. He's expected to pitch through them, but he has yet to go more than five innings in his five starts back from the IL. | Now for some prospect talk, and this one is geared specifically for Dynasty-leaguers. Here are 16 no-name sleepers to consider adding as the season draws to a close. | | Drew Thorpe, SP, Yankees | A+/AA: 14-2, 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 135 1/3 IP, 38 BB, 177 K | The left-hander most lauded for his changeup seemed like he might just be beating up on inferior competition early in the year, but then the dominance continued after his move up to Double-A. He has recorded double-digit strikeouts six times and, in an oddity for a minor-league pitcher, has gone seven innings or more seven times. | Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners | Rookie/A-: .295 BA (220 AB), 12 HR, .998 OPS, 52 BB, 68 K | With a build and history similar to Yordan Alvarez (right down to working with the same trainer in the Dominican Republic upon leaving Cuba), Montes' production, albeit at the lowest levels, makes for an almost too-convenient comparison. The strikeouts have so far been less of an issue for the 18-year-old than some feared. | Chase Petty, SP, Reds | A+/AA: 0-2, 1.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 64 IP, 14 BB, 62 K | Petty actually did get some buzz for his 102 mph fastball when he was drafted, but it quickly died down when the Twins turned him into a sinkerballer. Well, look at him now, practically untouchable with a ground-ball rate approaching 60 percent while still generating strikeouts at a decent clip. | Zach Dezenzo, 3B, Astros | A+/AA: .307 BA (322 AB), 15 HR, 22 SB, .916 OPS, 39 BB, 94 K | After beginning the year batting .407 at High-A, Dezenzo's numbers came down to earth with his move up to Double-A, but one thing that didn't change were his best-in-the-system exit velocities. And lately, he's begun to deliver the power befitting both them and his 6-foot-4 frame. | Sterlin Thompson, 3B, Rockies | A+/AA: .303 BA (323 AB), 12 HR, 17 SB, .885 OPS, 35 BB, 65 K | Thompson is hit over power right now, with a swing that's built for line drives and a mindset of poking the ball the opposite way, but he's put up pretty good power numbers in spite of it. If he adds a little more strength to his 6-foot-4 body and a little more loft to his swing, imagine what he could do playing half his games at Coors Field. | Thomas Saggese, 2B, Cardinals | AA: .316 BA (488 AB), 24 HR, 10 SB, .929 OPS, 49 BB, 130 K | Saggese is one of those prospects who simply produces in a way that defies all the measurables, sort of like Davis Schneider. He found another gear in mid-June, batting .348 with 19 homers and a 1.068 OPS in his past 71 games, and it was obviously enough for the Cardinals to target him in the Jordan Montgomery deal. | Justyn-Henry Malloy, 3B, Tigers | AAA: .292 BA (438 AB), 23 HR, .941 OPS, 101 BB, 128 K | Malloy doesn't have a lot of raw power, which is often how prospects go overlooked these days, but what he has is functional, capable of sending balls out to his pull side. What stands out for him most, though, is the superlative walk rate, which has him reaching base at better than a .400 clip (.432, in fact) for a second straight year. | Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays | A-/A+: .279 BA (344 AB), 16 HR, 10 SB, .882 OPS, 60 BB, 86 K | A 19-year-old who's already confined to first base generally does not a prospect make, but the Rays, who are no dumimies, were willing to expend their first-round pick on Isaac last year. Power is his standout tool, but he's demonstrated such discipline at the lower levels that it's not hard to envision him becoming a true No. 3-type hitter. | Ivan Melendez, 1B, Diamondbacks | A+/AA: .272 BA (379 AB), 30 HR, .923 OPS, 31 BB, 146 K | Can a Golden Spikes Award winner be a no-name? He can if he wasn't drafted especially high. Statcast has taught us that players who hit the ball exceptionally hard can overcome bloated strikeout rates, and Melendez may be the ultimate test case for that theory. So far, so good. | Justice Bigbie, OF, Tigers | A+/AA: .354 BA (376 AB), 17 HR, .969 OPS, 37 BB, 61 K | Bigbie lives to drive the ball the other way, which has so far worked out splendidly for him but could present a problem at bigger major-league venues like Comerica Park. Josh Jung is one such hitter who learned to overcome that issue, though, and even if Bigbie doesn't do the same, the tradeoff may simply be a higher batting average. | Graham Pauley, 3B, Padres | A-/A+/AA: .309 BA (447 AB), 21 HR, 22 SB, .928 OPS, 57 BB, 86 K | An optimal launch angle and pull rate have led to more power than expected for the 13th-rounder, and the surprises continue with a stolen base total to compete with the home runs. Pauley's left-handedness and disciplined approach will earn him more benefit of the doubt as he moves into the upper levels. | | News and Notes | Shohei Ohtani was out again Tuesday with that oblique injury.Trea Turner was placed on the paternity list, exactly nine months after signing his massive contract. Coincidence?Max Muncy was out of the lineup Tuesday after tweaking his left shoulder on a swing Sunday.Shane Bieber is scheduled to face live hitters Thursday at High-A. Triston McKenzie completed a bullpen session Progressive Field and has been cleared to face live hitting at HIgh-A on Friday. Terry Francona offered up September 20 as a tentative target date for both McKenzie and Shane Bieber.JoJo Romero was placed on the IL with left knee patellar tendinitis.Walker Buehler will make his next rehab start Friday at Triple-A. He threw two perfect innings in his rehab debut Sunday. Oneil Cruz is expected to restart his running progression this week. He was shut down August 23 due to soreness in his surgically-repaired left ankle. Edward Cabrera is expected to start Wednesday against the Dodgers.Marcus Stroman threw a successful bullpen session Monday. It was his first time throwing off a mound since he was diagnosed with a right rib cage cartilage fracture in mid-August.Anthony Rizzo will be shut down for the rest of the 2023 season with that post concussion syndrome. Edwin Diaz is scheduled to throw two bullpen sessions this week in front of the Mets' major-league coaching staff. He remains adamant that he wants to pitch over the final month.Hunter Renfroe was scratched with left hamstring tightness. Harrison Bader was added to the Reds lineup.Michael Brantley has sat two days in a row after starting four of his first five games. Monday was against a lefty but Tuesday was against Nathan Eovaldi. | | | | | The Early Edge | | Cover 3 | Welcome to The Early Edge! 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