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| Monday, September 11, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| The first full Sunday of the season is now officially in the books and I'll be honest, it might have been the most confusing opening week of all-time and that's mostly because the Browns, Lions, Raiders and Jaguars all won their openers. I'm not sure what's real anymore. Before this year, those four teams had never been 1-0 at the same time. |
| If cats (Jaguars, Lions) and dogs (Browns) living in harmony isn't weird enough, we also have Cowboys fans, who might actually be right about their team this year. Every season, they say it's the Cowboys' year, and for 28 straight years, they've been wrong, but after watching last night's game, I have to admit, they might be right in 2023. |
| Anyway, there's a lot to go over today, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It's the perfect gift to get for your favorite football-loving friend at the start of the season. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's Show: 10 takeaways from Week 1 |
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| It's Monday, which can only mean one thing: I stayed up until 3 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson that touched on everything you need to know about Week 1, and let me just say, it's probably for the best that you listen. |
| During our 90-minute show, not only did we cover 10 of our biggest takeaways from Week 1, but we also tried to predict that topics that people will be overreacting to this week. For instance, there's a 100% chance that every Browns fan alive will be saying this is the Browns' year after what Cleveland did to the Bengals. |
| Here are a few of the takeaways we covered: |
| Tua Tagovailoa looked better than Justin Herbert. During the Dolphins' 36-34 win over the Chargers, Tua was the better quarterback and it wasn't even close. When Tua is at his best the Dolphins have an electrifying offense and Tua was at his best against the Chargers (He threw for 466 yards). 49ers looked dominant. We spent a good five minutes debating whether the 49ers are good, the Steelers are bad or a little bit of both and the conclusion we came to is that San Francisco is an unstoppable juggernaut. The scary part is that the offense looks even better than it did last year. Brock Purdy is making even better throws and Brandon Aiyuk, who finished with 129 yards and two touchdowns, is emerging as serious weapon. Also, the 49ers defense looked dominant in the 30-7 win even though Nick Bosa was almost a non-factor. Jordan Love might be for real. In his first game as the Packers' full-time starter, Love was impressive, throwing for 245 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay's 38-20 win over Chicago. Sure, he was only playing the Bears, but his numbers were still impressive. If Love continues to get better each week, there's a very real chance that the Packers could end up being a dark horse contender for the NFC North title. |
| To hear the rest of our takeaways from Week 1, be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Week 1 grades: Bucs get a solid grade for pulling off upset against Vikings |
| Every week I team up with six of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Seahawks failed out of our imaginary football school. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
| Buccaneers 20-17 over Vikings (Click here for full recap) |
| Buccaneers takeaway: The Buccaneers might want to think about re-opening those Mike Evans contract talks. The veteran receiver was a big reason why Tampa Bay was able to pull the upset in this game. Evans caught six passes for 66 yards, including a 28-yard TD pass in the second quarter that tied the game. Overall, the Buccaneers offense wasn't pretty, but it seemed to come through with a big play whenever Tampa needed it, including a fourth down conversion by Baker Mayfield in the fourth quarter that set up a 57-yard field goal that ended up being the deciding points. Defensively, the Bucs got burnt by Justin Jefferson in the first half, but then clamped down on him in the second half. Between that and forcing three turnovers, it was an impressive day from Tampa's D. It's only one win, but there's no reason to think the Bucs can't contend in the NFC South. Grade: B+Vikings takeaway: Vikings fans seem to have a love-hate relationship with Kirk Cousins and there's probably not much love right now after the way Cousins played against the Bucs. The Vikings quarterback lost two fumbles in the FIRST 10 minutes of the game on a day where he had three total turnovers. Cousins also seemed to forget that Justin Jefferson existed in the second half. After going off for 138 yards in the first two quarters, Jefferson had just 12 yards in the second half. The Vikings were unbeatable in one-score games last year and it appears the law of averages has finally caught up to them, because in the NFL, you can't win every one-score game every week. Grade: C |
| Saints 16-15 over Titans (Click here for full game stats) |
| Titans takeaway: It's a miracle the Titans kept this game close considering how bad Ryan Tannehill was. Not only did he complete under 50% of his passes, but he also threw three interceptions. The Titans made the decision to stick with Tannehilll for the 2023 season and after just one game, that decision already looks like it's backfiring. The Titans defense teamed up with Nick Folk -- who had five field goals -- to keep this game close in spite of Tannehill. Grade: C+Saints takeaway: In his first game with the Saints, Derek Carr wasn't pretty, but he got the job done. Carr's best throw of the game came on a third down with under two minutes left when he hit Rashid Shaheed for a 41-yard gain that iced the win. Of course, the star of this game was a Saints defense that shut down Derrick Henry while also picking off Ryan Tannehill three times. The defense also kept the Titans out of the end zone, which is a big reason why New Orleans was able to walk away with the win. Grade: B |
| As for the other 20 grades we handed out on Sunday, you can check those out by clicking here. |
| 3. 12 crazy facts from Week 1: Brock Purdy makes NFL history |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 10 crazy facts about Week 10: |
Purdy nice. With the 49ers' win over the Steelers, Brock Purdy became the first quarterback in NFL history to win each of his first six career regular-season starts while also throwing at least two touchdown passes in each start. Purdy is also the first QB in NFL history to record a QB rating of 95 or higher in his first six career starts. Rough time for top picks. Bryce Young's loss on Sunday means that the last 15 quarterbacks who have been selected with the No. 1 overall pick are winless in their first career start (0-14-1). The last top pick to win his debut was David Carr in 2002. Browns end long drought. The Browns' win over the Bengals was their first in a home opener since 2004. It also marked the first time since the 1993 and 1994 seasons that the Browns have won back-to-back openers. Cleveland's 24-3 win was also the team's largest margin of victory in Week 1 since 1989, which also happens to be the last time they won a division title. Falcons are flying high. Thanks to their win over the Panthers, the Falcons are now 1-0, which is a big deal for them, because it marks the first time since 2017 that they've been over .500 at any point in a season. The five-year drought was the longest active streak without being over .500 by any team in the NFL. Historical start. For the first time in NFL history, the Browns, Lions, Raiders and Jaguars have all opened the season with a 1-0 record. The Jaguars have existed since 1995, so it took 28 years for all four teams to finally break through and win their opening game in the same season. Field goal fest. Led by Nick Folk, who hit five field goals in New Orleans, the Titans and Saints combined to kick eight total field goals, which is an NFL record for Week 1. John Harbaugh will crush your soul in Week 1. The Ravens' 25-9 win over the Texans marked the eighth time that they've won an opener by 15 points or more under Harbaugh. That's the second-most in NFL history, trailing only Tom Landry. Ravens' win over Texans ends in a scorigami. The Ravens' win was also notable because the final score (25-9) marked the first time in NFL history that a game finished with that exact final score.
Colts can't win in Week 1. Thanks to their 31-21 loss to Jacksonville, the Colts have now gone winless in 10 straight season openers, which is the second-longest streak since 1970, trailing only the Browns, who went winless from 2005 thru 2021. Tua time. Tua Tagovailoa's 466 passing yards are the fourth-most ever by any quarterback in Week 1. His total trails only Norm Van Brocklin (554 in 1951), Dan Marino (473 in 1994) and Tom Brady (517 in 2011). King of the Hill. Tyreek Hill finished with 215 receiving yards against the Chargers, which is the third-most in NFL history for a Week 1 game.Puka packs a punch. With 10 receptions for 119 yards, Rams receiver Puka Nacua became just the fourth player in NFL history to record at least 10 catches and 100 receiving yards in his first career game, according to ESPN Stats. Cowboys join rare club. With a special teams TD and a defensive TD in the first quarter against the Giants on Sunday night, Dallas became just the third team in NFL history to score two touchdowns like that during the first quarter of their opener, joining the 1967 Bears and the 1986 Bears (via ESPN ). Those two touchdowns propelled the Cowboys to a 40-0 win.
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| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 4. NFL stock up and stock down after Week 1 |
| Every week this season, we'll be taking a look at which players, coaches and teams saw their stock go up and which ones saw their stock go down. As our resident stock expert, Cody Benjamin was tasked to come up with this list. |
| Here are two players who saw their stock go up in Week 1: |
| Tua Tagovailoa. "Odds are, going into 2023, you fell into one of two camps: Tua believer or Tua skeptic. Both sides are understandable, and either one could still prove right. But the Dolphins quarterback was undeniably back to early-2022 form against the Chargers, repeatedly feeding Tyreek Hill on accurate downfield shots while also showcasing short-area touch to outgun Justin Herbert, 36-34."Brock Purdy. "It was fair to be a little concerned about Purdy's small sample size as the 49ers' improbably poised starting QB late in 2022. But "Mr. Irrelevant" picked up where he left off against the supposedly stingy Steelers defense, picking apart Pittsburgh in a 30-7 rout." |
| On the other end of the spectrum, here's a look at one coach and one team who saw their stock go down. |
| Zac Taylor. "The Bengals coach said after Sunday's 24-3 rain-soaked shellacking at the hands of the Browns that "this isn't the team that we are going to be." No? Well, it's the team he's trotting out right now. He had all offseason to prep for Cleveland's defensive front, and yet Joe Burrow and Co. were helpless without a clean pocket or conditions."Vikings. "A year after going 13-4 atop the NFC North, Kevin O'Connell's squad played down to the overlooked Buccaneers on their home turf, allowing Baker Mayfield to steal the late-game spotlight with a do-or-die mentality and a couple of well-designed strikes to Mike Evans that sealed the deal." |
| If you want to check out Cody's full story on NFL stock after Week 1, be sure to click here. |
| 5. Monday preview: Prepping you for Bills at Jets |
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| After spending nearly the entire offseason talking about Aaron Rodgers, we're finally going to get to see him play for the Jets and he's going to be in an unfamiliar spot: He's a home underdog. The Bills are currently favored by two points over the Jets, which is notable, because Rodgers has rarely ever been a home underdog in his career. During his 15 seasons as the full-time starter in the Green Bay, he was only a home underdog eight times and he went 7-1 against the spread and 5-2-1 straight-up, so you might want to think twice before you bet against him tonight. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin put our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the Bills can win: This is a tough matchup for the Bills. Josh Allen played the Jets twice last season and he struggled in both games (He threw just one touchdown in the two games combined while throwing two interceptions. He also averaged just 176 passing yards per game). The Jets have two strong corners in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, who should be able to slow down Buffalo's passing game (and possibly frustrate Stefon Diggs). This means the Bills need to look to other parts of their offense to get going. If Allen can get rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid involved, that could probaby help and it would also probably help if the Bills can run the ball on the Jets with their stable of running backs that includes James Cook and Damien Harris. Why the Jets can win: The Jets had plenty of offensive weapons last season, they just didn't have a quarterback who could get the ball to those weapons. This year, that shouldn't be an issue. Although the Jets have upgraded at QB by adding Aaron Rodgers, there are still some major question marks on the offensive line. That's the Jets' biggest weakness/question mark heading into Week 1. If the line looks good, Rodgers should have no problem getting the ball to guys like Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Basically, if Rodgers has time to throw, this could be a big night for the Jets. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Jordan Dajani has put together a full gambling preview. |
| ONE PROP JORDAN LIKES: Garrett Wilson OVER 67.5 receptions (-119): "I'll bite. Wilson crossed this number in eight games last year with virtually no quarterback, including in both games vs. Buffalo."ONE PROP I LIKE: Greg Zuerlein OVER 6.5 points (-109): With Aaron Rodgers now the quarterback, I think the Jets will be able to move the ball tonight. However, when a QB is playing with a new team, it can be difficult to move the ball in the red zone, which is why I could see Zuerlein kicking two or more field goals tonight. If that happens, he should hit the OVER easily here. |
| You can check out Dajani's full gambling preview by clicking here. Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
Dubin's pick: Bills 20-17 over Jets
Dajani's pick: Jets 24-23 over Bills
My pick: Jets 27-20 over Bills |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, six of our eight experts are taking the Bills to win straight-up. However, when it comes to the spread, we're split evenly with four us on the Jets (+2) and four of us on the Bills. |
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| 6. Extra points: J.K. Dobbins out for the year |
| It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Ravens lose J.K. Dobbins. The Ravens running back will miss the rest of the season after tearing his Achille during Baltimore's 25-9 win over the Texans. It's a brutal blow for Dobbins, who has had some trouble staying healthy over the course of his career. Cooper Kupp placed on IR. The Rams star receiver will have to miss at least the next three games after being place on injured reserve over the weekend. The move means that Kupp (hamstring) can't return until Week 5 at the earliest when the Rams play the Eagles. Without Kupp, the Rams were able to pull off a major upset on Sunday with a 30-13 win over the Seahawks.
Cesar Ruiz gets massive extension from Saints. The Saints starting right guard will be sticking around New Orleans for the next few years. The offensive lineman has agreed to terms on a four-year extension that's worth up to $44 million. Ruiz was in the final year of his rookie deal, but now, he's signed through the 2027 season. Former NFL WR Mike Williams breathing on his own. Last week, there was some errant speculation that Williams had died, but that's definitely not the case. The former NFL receiver is now breathing on his own after being removed from life support following a construction site accident. However, he remains in the intensive care unit at St. Joseph's Hospital in Tampa. You can read more about Williams' situation here. |
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